3.4B, 0.56, 3.47B
My rambling thoughts are below:
In Q4, AMD beat by 240M over guidance (3.24B vs 3.00B), they had non-GAAP GM of 45% and 0.52/share. Now the question is does the Xilinx deal impact share count between Q4 and Q1?
This Qtr they guided for 3.2B and GM of 0.46, so 0.46/0.45 = 1.02x (of course we don't know where the rounding is on either number!). They will beat by at least 0.04B, giving the same total revenue, so earnings should be at least 0.52 x 1.02 = 0.53.
AMD grew 2020 vs 2019 revenue by 45%. They have guided for 37% growth for this year. Note that at the start of 2020, they guided for 28-30% growth, (later revised up), but they hit 45/30 = 150% of their original year guidance.
Unfortunately the QoQ compare from a year ago doesn't help this time, as negligible semicustom was the factor for Q1'20. Now semicustom appears backlogged, and they are likely making as much as they can and selling it all.
Full year 2020 was $9.763B so x 1.37 = 13.38B/4 = 3.34B if the qtrs were even. IIRC, semicustom accounting rules now weight more in 1H than they did before, so seasonality is smoothed a bit from yee olden years, and that should apply this year.
From last year, the qtrly incomes were:
Q1: 1.79B (console which should be around 600M was "negligible).
Q2: 1.93B
Q3: 2.80B
Q4: 3.24B
So IF, they hit guidance of Q1 at 3.2B and hit guidance of full year at 37% YoY or 13.38B, then Q1 is close to 1/4 if the year.
We know console is likely still running full tilt, GPU should be, notebooks were a record for Intel in the Qtr, and Intel's DCG is tanking. Soooo, in the end its still a WAG, but:
I think AMD beats on the top by $200M, that a bit less than last qtr, so 3.4B.
Earnings will then be 3.4/3.24 x 1.02 x 0.52 = 0.5566 so I'll round up to 0.56.
For Q2, I'll go with 3.47B, which implies they must raise full year too. |
