As Neo and others pointed out, even if they just meet revenue guidance in Q1, with a 37% YOY growth forcast, the QOQ growth for this year is not so great. Perhaps that is what the marketed focused on after the Q4 earnings call.
Since I expect them to beat for Q1, they have to raise for Q2 and FY2021.
There was a big shortage of Ryzen 5000 in Q1. This is resolving in the first month of Q2. I guess they used their high binning chiplets in Q1 to support EPYC. I suspect they also used a lot of wafer starts to support expansion of laptop. Also, they probably had contractual requirements to support XBOX and PS5. XBOX was strong in Q1 -- PS5, not so much.
If they did get more allocation in Q1, it should be shown in Q2 -- as we see with 5600X, 5800X, available at MSRP, and 5900X coming in-and-out of supply at Amazon. Again, 5950X and GPUs are still MIA.
Yes, the long term is important, but I fear a market crash in the near term. If we are lucky enough to get a further pop tomorrow, I will probably get into a more conservative (wealth preservation) position. In fact, I already have been. |
