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David, Many already are dead meat, they just don't know it yet. This cycle has just started on the down side as we have seen almost nothing in the way of capitulation, yet. So far, new entrants outnumber the firms that are leaving, which is just Motorola right now (in word only. They are still buying equipment, so it could be a fake-out. Or, they have some kind of iron clad deal with fab partner AMAT to buy their crapola no matter what). The stuff about reducing capacity is the same flim-flam we heard from Asia last year, when they closed 4 Mbit fabs and produced more Mbit capacity on 16 and 64 Mbit fabs. And, of course, MU continues to build capacity and inventory. So, I'm still looking for a lot more pain before the industry starts its long climb back up. MB |
