I've checked my flamethrower at the door. So let's proceed.
Needless to say, I believe you are wrong on many counts but it is a huge mistake to project that "Network TV is the appropriate analogy" for the Net. That model has a clouded future even for TV despite 50 years of viewer conditioning. As a DirecTv user for the past two years I've seen the future and it's more and more "narrow casting" to specific demographic groups. The networks will survive but with greatly diminished reach and appeal to advertisers.
The Net is even more suited for "narrow casting", with millions to billions of channels appearing. (Everyone will ultimately have their own "channel"). Advertisers will support content channels that supply their target audience. AOL will try to segment its audience but the best content providers will see no reason to share revenue with AOL.
In fact, they are already bailing AOL. Mercury Center - gone. Scholastic - gone. NetGirl creator - gone to the web. Even those rats, HYPE CENTRAL, the MF's, are edging towards the door. NBC got out of AOL deal without even getting on - GE was in such a rush to join up with MS! The results are in - GE voted on AOL's future and AOL lost.
The Seidman Online Newsletter reports today that AOL is considering a flat fee for the internet and posits that many AOL content providers, such as the NYTimes, will see the conflict and go totally to the web.
I do think there will be channels with network type appeal on the Net, but AOL ain't gonna be one of them. Microsoft has confirmed that.
MS's network ambitions are manifest but they do not regard AOL as the competition. No, they see that entertainment juggernaut, Walt Disney, as their main competitor in that endeavor. Gates has said so.
Disney is the world's premier content provider, has the strongest brand name in virtually any industry and one of the widest possible audiences. (It also outpolls Daimler-Benz for producing a quality product, something alien to AOL).
Six months ago I read that Disney's web site had over 2,000 pages. I'm sure it has grown and it has been reported that Disney with go subscription in the future. Disney will surely grab ABC off AOL and combine it with ESPN on the web. I'm sure advertising revenues figure prominently in the financial mix. The Mouse is renown for its ability to turn a buck, so I doubt it will share revenues with AOL any longer than it is contractually bound.
I resolutely believe that AOL does not stand a remote chance as a major content provider with network appeal in the future when squared against the impending competitive onslaught.
Regards |
