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Biotech / Medical : ArQule
ARQL 20.000.0%Jan 16 4:00 PM EST
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To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (157)2/3/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (1) of 399
 
About ABT. Time to sell. It's over owned, overblown, and ready to start the long downside. No, not quite ready. It'll take a few months of general topping before the experts realize, "oh my god, get me out!" If you own them you should take advantage of the topping process and sell.

You believe in authority because that's part of your livelihood. You have no idea why ABT is throwing peanuts at ARQL. I suggest they are doing it for its speculative potential. It's the same kind of reasoning that you have been making for ARQL for the last six months. A little dough to run the prayer wheel faster might accidentally hit on something ABT can use. There's a little juice in it for ARQL, but you can't expect this kid of strategy to generate a reliable stream of future income.That's like asserting that martingale's have a positive expected return.

You stated some months ago that this company has little downside risk and great upside potential, so effectively they can't lose. The nature of markets is such that the best knowledge available implies that instantaneous expectations are fully reflected in current price. Either your assessment characterization is incorrect in that upside and downside at any instant are in equilibrium or you know more than all the other experts who fully understand the technology of this company. The latter may be true, but I'd never make that kind of outlandish claim, because it gets you psychologically bagged. That means you're hooked and hold when you suspect you should sell. But you're married to it. I sold today. Glad to leave you guys some scraps on the table.
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