data review as of May 7 close: the /ES Volume Histograms' size
greatly tapers down in relative percentage terms once /ES advanced
above approx. 4189.50 level, using the 10-day look back
of the Volume size at each individual /ES price level
earlier during the upward path for price action, the Volume Histograms
accelerated in size once price moved above approx. 4159.75,
and much smaller Volume Histogram sizes exist
at price levels below 4159.75
Summary: 4159.75 to 4189.50 zone = the currently "most" accepted fair market value
by market participants, using the 10-day look back
4220.88 = /ES daily 21,2 upper Bollinger Band value, as of May 7 close
4161.11 = 21-day SMA
Message #461 from rimshot at 5/7/2021 12:19:06 PM
/ES Volume Histograms' size greatly taper down in relative percentage terms
once /ES advanced above 4190.50 level, using the 30-day look back
of the Volume size at each individual /ES price level
tapering down of the Volume Histogram sizes especially accelerated
once price moved above approx. 4203.75
* in other words, the Volume associated with /ES price prints at each individual price
especially thinned relative to the 30-day history once /ES moved above 4190.50,
and additional Volume thinning to date as of mid-day May 7th is taking place above 4203.75 ...
so the valid determination of what is accepted fair market value by market participants
is in process and time will tell based on the actual Volume size taking place in the future
periods above the 4203.75 to 4190.50 zone
/ES "accepted fair market value" by market participants is defined as follows
using both the 5-day and 30-day Volume by Price look backs, and this data
remains valid since the May 5th review --
as of May 5 2:49 pm ET chart set using most recent data feed:
considering both the /ES 5-day and 30-day Volume Profile looks backs,
they are interpreted as follows, right now using the most current Volume Profile data set:
* tapering down takes place above 4182.50 and below 4170.50 from higher to lower volume nodes
at each single tick for the /ES pricing...
note today's all-sessions price high is /ES 4180.00, so far ...
using both look-backs, market participants have established the /ES
" accepted fair market value" to currently reside
within the 4170.50 through 4182.50 zone, and the Weekly Pivot sits
a tiny distance above 82.50, and the Monthly Pivot for all of May
sits slightly below the May 4 price low for /ES
** the /ES Weekly Pivot has served as resistance since the May 5 overnight session
began on May 4 p.m.,
so the trading bias for the coming hours has much to prove for bulls & bears ...
??? will there be Volume prints above 4182.50 and above the Weekly Pivot value
now briefly proven as horizontal Resistance, or will there be additional Volume prints
below /ES 4170.50 in the coming days/weeks to establish a
lower price zone for "accepted fair market value" ???
using rounding for the $SPX cash index, the sequence of higher close lows since mid-April are:
4125 - tested and generally held on Tuesday May 4, nothing but air below until approx. 3990 and 3890
4135 - printed twice
4164.66 - Tuesday May 4 close
=====================================
excerpt from May 3 evening post -
daily chart for $SPX shows:
3 consecutive days below 10-day EMA for the ITBM and ITVM for the S&P 500 index,
which has an 8-day count for the $OEX ITBM and a zero count for the $NYA
it is possible since the $SPX Price Momentum Oscillator is newly spending time below
its signal line that more down is coming ...
I see /ES 4183.50 and SPY 419.00 as the most probable "brain dead simple" version
of bull / bear horizontal dividers for a future bounce if seen ...
there are five other data points from Volume Profile analysis plus more
that show /ES 4180 to 4185.00 zone is critical to both bulls & bears
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