To make amends, after my C64 digressions derailed the thread, here is my latest update of my scenarios for AMD's longterm prospects. I have added CAGR to the table, since any consideration of market capitalisation, and hence stock price, needs to take growth into account.
| AMD+Xilinx longterm prospects (3-5 years) | Revenue | CAGR | GM | EPS | Market cap. | SP | Likelihood | | Doom-and-gloom: Falters and fades away, overtaken by competitors | <$8B | <(-10)% | <40% | <$0 | <$40B | <$25 | 1% | | Pessimistic: Underdog, fighting for profitability, precarious future | $8B–10B | (-10)–(-5)% | 40–45% | $0–1 | $40B–80B | $25–50 | 4% | | Stable: Respected competitor, solid profitability, competitive pressure | $10B–20B | (-5)–10% | 45–50% | $1–4 | $80B–160B | $50–100 | 25% | | Optimistic: Matches competitors, high margins and solid growth | $20B–40B | 10–30% | 50–55% | $4–8 | $160B–320B | $100–200 | 45% | | Pie-in-the-sky: Overtakes competitors, leading innovation and markets | $40B+ | 30%+ | 55%+ | $8+ | $320B+ | $200+ | 25% | |
My CAGR numbers are estimated roughly to reach the given revenue range from the current level (~$13B AMD+Xilinx) in 4 years. AMD targets 20% CAGR in their latest financial model. Lisa Su was asked about that number after the Xilinx merger announcement, and she confirmed that the combined entity would uphold that target over the long term. AMD is confidently forecasting 50% growth this year, while Zacks forecasts ~14% growth for Xilinx (Xilinx is not giving guidance due to the merger).
EPS and market capitalisation numbers are based on 1.6B shares outstanding after the acquisition of Xilinx. On 2021-05-13, market capitalisation stood at $89B + $28B = $117B for AMD+Xilinx (equivalent to a combined share price of $73). This compares to $340B for Nvidia (2.9x AMD+Xilinx) and $218B for Intel (1.9x AMD+Xilinx).
AMD's revenue was $6.5B for 2018, $6.7B for 2019 and $9.8B for 2020, with $14.6B forecasted for 2021, on track for a CAGR of 31% over 3 years. Xilinx's revenue was $3.1B for FY2019, $3.2B for FY2020 and $3.1B for FY2021, achieving a CAGR of 0% over 2 years. Nvidia's revenue was $11.7B for FY2019, $10.9B for FY2020 and $16.7B for FY2021, achieving a CAGR of 19% over 2 years. Intel's revenue was $70.8B for 2018, $72.0B for 2019 and $77.9B for 2020, achieving a CAGR of 5% over 2 years.
AMD's gross margin was 37% for 2018, 43% for 2019, and 45% for 2020, with their latest financial outlook targeting ~47% for 2021. Xilinx's gross margin was 69% for FY2019, 67% for FY2020, and 68% for FY2021. Nvidia's gross margin was 62% for FY2019, 62% for FY2020, and 62% for FY2021. Intel's gross margin was 62% for 2018, 58% for 2019, and 56% for 2020, with further decline expected for 2021.
AMD's net profit margin was 5% for 2018, 4% for 2019, and 26% for 2020, with 20% forecasted for 2021. Xilinx's net profit margin was 29% for FY2019, 25% for FY2020, and 21% for FY2021. Nvidia's net profit margin was 35% for FY2019, 26% for FY2020, and 26% for FY2021. Intel's net profit margin was 30% for 2018, 29% for 2019, and 27% for 2020, with further decline expected for 2021.
Sources:
Yahoo Finance | AMD | Key Statistics
Yahoo Finance | Xilinx | Key Statistics
Yahoo Finance | Nvidia | Key Statistics
Yahoo Finance | Intel | Key Statistics
Macrotrends | AMD
Macrotrends | Xilinx
Macrotrends | Nvidia
Macrotrends | Intel
Comparison charts:
Mactrotrends | Revenue (INTC, AMD, NVDA, XLNX)
Mactrotrends | Gross Margin (INTC, AMD, NVDA, XLNX)
Mactrotrends | EPS (INTC, AMD, NVDA, XLNX)
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