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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 368.31+0.6%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (172090)5/21/2021 10:01:44 PM
From: sense1 Recommendation

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maceng2

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Raoul Pal on the Crypto Market Crash

A major red flag... in his approach, here.

"REALLY... there's no real news..." ?

Minimizing the news there is... he just dismisses it... fails to even consider it... and immediately reverts from any consideration of changing fundamentals... back to technical analysis grounded in crypto myths about inevitablity... and other stuff that really doesn't matter AT ALL if the fundamentals have changed.

Have the fundamentals changed ? Serious analysis required... not an off hand dismissal.

See crypto as "just another product"... and see what any rational market participant or pundit will say about his favorite product suddenly being banned by the government ? "There's no real news"... will not be any part of it ?

Note, I'm not saying that there's no argument left to be made...

I'm just saying... its a huge red flag... when reality intrudes... and otherwise reasonably rational advocates dismiss the need for an argument.

I think Raoul Pal... is not a rational analyst on crypto... and his opinions should not be relied upon.

i think Zero Hedge does a crappy job of making an argument in this instance...

But, they do make one... even if the best of their journalism is contained in the headline: Cryptos Crash After China Again Vows Crackdown On Mining And TradingThe news has been slowly ramping up, over time... as bankers (mostly as the BIS) and governments begin to grapple more seriously with the issues that crypto raises...

The news today was not "the last of it"... in what governments and the banks will have to say about it.

That a guy like Elon Musk can tweet... and send the price of this or that soaring or plunging ?

Either he would be the most effective Fed Chairman ever... with his great ability to "jawbone" the market into doing what he wants... re-valuing currencies or changing interest rates based on his snark... or else... there's something else going on here with crypto that is being overlooked ?

Potential... is not utility. The whole crypto enterprise is still entirely speculative. Dot.com bubble territory. Stocks, or coins... trading on the "latest news"... meaning what Elon Musk said today ? That is not reality. That... is extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds... personified. That is the same thing that sent dot.com stocks soaring one day... crashing the next... based on someone's opinion... when there was no reason anyone should value that opinioin ?

The carnage today... on a different scale... occurred because the opinion that was expressed... was one that mattered ? The magnitude of the change... indicates SOME of the magnitude of the vulnerability to an opinion... the rest of which impact we have yet to see ?

Beyond todays carnage... look at Raoul's charts... and note first, the atypical vertical T intersection with the price and the graph... and then, note his obvious belief that it is not possible that, on Monday, the price could continue down... and cross that last line on the chart... with nothing below it to support it... except the good wishes of the Chinese Communist Party... and, ignored in today's news... the equally glad hand of the IRS.

I don't know, yet... what the news today will prove to mean... in terms of change in how China approaches the wilfull disregard of their prior announcements of... the same thing. But, that does mean I can't claim it to be nothing... when I don't know what it is... The headline says "China Vows Crackdown"... ?

On Monday... we will get the market's second hot take on whether a "crackdown" by China... is a noisy discordant note, but one that belongs within the range of Raoul's clef... or whether that clef and the stave Raoul is using as a price chart... are off by a couple of octaves...
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