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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 263.78

+4.5%

Dec 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Sridhar Srinivasan who wrote (27641)	2/3/1998 7:02:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) of 53903

sridhar, can we agree that mu's asp last q was $4.88? can we agree that mu's asp has dropped at least 20%? can we agree that gross and net costs will not fall 20% - maybe 5-10%. if this is reasonable then mu will do poorly this q. i think the asps are probably down closer to 30-40%, but i am always conservative. i think you meant suspension of belief, not disbelief. in any case, my methods, and we agree they are overly simplified, beat the socks off of the mu "experts" two qs running. and not by a little bit. did you know that mu's depreciation will increase a total of $90 mil over the next 3 qs? that is $0.14 more of a loss per q. the goal is not to get exact. just direction and a gross magnitude. it has worked like a charm. anyway, this q will be tough to gauge - but not for the reasons you put forth. muei is the wild card. i think they have a good q and soften mu's deisaster. the fundamental oversupply problem is not over yet. exhuberent investors insure that it won't be over for quite some time. the stock is doing well but business isn't. deja vu all over again ;-)

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