VESC, SYQT, IOM
VESC is reversing as we speak, but don't be mislead by the volume purely as a number. The single 120k buy midday after the intraday gap helped bring it up to 7, and looking at the bottom of 6.5 a couple of days ago it seems to be climbing incrementally for the average trade. As for dead cat bounces, one can't expect that when a stock drops as large as this one did, that it will automatically bounce. If the market feels that it was overpriced, or that its earnings weren't up to par or expectation, or that the short or long term prospects weren't encouraging enough, and that the other fundamentals weren't there, then its not going to bounce. Its moving, but it looks like some patience is in order.
SYQT (2.75) has moved up nicely after its floor of 2.4 a few days ago, and looks to continue up.
IOM was posted at 9, and my conclusion was that it had a shot at 12.
So if we look at the raw numbers and the potential, both look to movE percentage-wise up about the same. Both have decent volume, and both are being carried by its bullish sector so far. However, when you compare tickers, especially in the same sector, you must appreciate that the market in general lOoks at the following, in generally the listed order:
Fundamentals
Earnings
Earnings Forecasts
insider Actions
Analysts (Collective) Opinions/ Major financial firm up/downgrades
News
Continuing Product market
The issue is not which has a single superior product, but which firm is producing a line of marketable products. The large storage device market is getting saturated, and one more great entry into the 1 to 2 Gb arena is just going to steal market share from the others, not create new business. I had a Syquest EZ drive - loved it, fast, robust, larger than zip. I sold it because the common format I was using across multiple machines in several environments was zip - it was becoming ubiquitous. I also sold my SYQT stock at a loss. The Fundamental criteria for IOM is better, the earnings forecasts are better, the insiders are accumulating, the analysts are upgrading, the product line is expanding. They are not just competing against similar products - they are pentrating new markets. Therefore IOM looks to be the better choice over SYQT in terms of what I am going to spend time analysing forecasting and exercising the net on. Will SYQT rise - looks like it is now. Which is the riskier play given the market sentiment between the two companies, and which has a higher potential growth ceiling in the near term. My guess is IOM, but after looking at the chart I would say the SYQT could double if something really great comes out. Do I think the market is aware of what both companies are doing and worth? Yes, because the prices reflects that perceived value. SYQT is definitely worth watching, but it isnt because of a single product or especially becasue of that one. TA says its reversing. Good enough reason for me to watch it.
lastshadow |
