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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (13857)2/3/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Hi Lisa: Maybe, I can do it right this time. When I wrote the original note on the ARMs, I noted that I do not expect it to work well during extreme conditions. I also noted that when we bottomed at 7700 for the current runup the ARMs was at 4.75. It should have been at 6 or above. Yesterday it was at 3.99. I think it should be close to that today. I have not had a chance to update my information.

During the consolidation, the ARMs was early by one day on several occasions. So if it is still working, tomorrow should start a selloff. Unless that selloff is about 150 points or more over several days, I would consider the ARMs to be suspect under the current market conditions. If we have moved back within the main trend of this bull market, I would suspect that the ARMs will become unreliable.

However the index performed so well during the consolidation, I think it is worth monitoring regardless of whether or not it functions in a strong uptrend.
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