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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 346.05

+0.3%

11:15 AM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (27740)	2/4/1998 12:44:00 AM
From: H.Jablomey	Read Replies (1) of 53903

I agree that the growth in supply will at least keep up with demand, and that is what keeps me from buying into this company. (I'll just play the roller coaster ride that the stock provides.) However, I disagree slightly with your numbers: >>otherwise, supply keeps marching on. just ponder how much bit supply will increase when 64 mb transfromation is made. 200-250%? that alone - assuming no more supply comes on stream - is enough to keep mu near breakeven for several more years. It's been documented that Micron's 16Mb EDO DRAM is somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 sq. mm. So bit-supply-parity for a 64Mb chip is 120 sq. mm. A 200% increase in bit supply would roughly translate into a 64Mb chip size of 60 sq. mm (ignoring yield issues). If MU's 64M SDRAM is truly 93 sq. mm, the increase in bit supply is marginal, if not zero (including yield issues...larger dice don't yield as well). This, of course, assumes that Micron's competitors' 64M chips aren't much, if any, smaller than Micron's chips. Bear with me if I'm just splitting hairs on technical points...I'm an engineer with several drinks in me. :) Sam

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