P Engr's latest from the AOL Board (BTW, has anyone seen me and P Engr in the same room at the same time?)
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Subject: Re: Paging P Engr.
Date: Tue, Feb 3, 1998 23:21 EST
From: P Engr
Message-id: <19980204042100.XAA11472@ladder02.news.aol.com>
Sorry for my absence, I've been very busy and don't have the time
to keep up with all of the posts----I'm behind by 10 or so days----
and on our popular board---that means a whole lot of reading. I probably
won't find the time to get "caught up".
As to the overall market----I missed the move. I thought that a
bear was in store, but, it turned out to be a trap in this endless bull.
Technically, the market appears to be set for a continued advance, with
the SPX,and others, breaking into all time highs over last couple of days.
I have covered the shorts listed in my 1/6 post over the last couple of days.
As to the drillers---I am still on the sidelines. The land contractors are
experiencing dayrate softening, the result of a drop in utilization due to
the drop in natural gas prices. I had hoped that the "strong hands" of the
"consolidators" (NBR, UTI, PTEN, BDI, GW) would enable avoidance of
price cutting-------but, unfortunately, the mentallity has'nt changed----
Panic reactions to stacking a rig Equals Cut Prices. The contractors
were their own worst enamies during the past, and may be again. We
will just have to wait and see. Hopefully, they will resist the suicidal
temptation to cut prices, and instead just let the rigs fall where they may.
For the offshore drillers, the charts appear to be bottoming and I am tempted
to buy, but will wait for more evidence before making the plunge. Will post
whenever I do. Meanwhile, for the land drillers it appears that the downside lows
posted in my 1/11/98 post, are a distinct possibility.
Best to All on this great Board!!!
P Engr.
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