Thoughts for the week of 6/21/21
Primary Scenario
Astro:
Monday ST equities low. Venus tri Neptune and Sun tri Jupiter both indicate likely transits that will be lows. I had this as a high a month ago, but market action suggests that it will be a low.
Also --
June 14 was a T-square, negative aspect. Marks a high.
June 21 is a grand trine, positive aspect. Marks a low.
June 28 starts a new a T-square with 3 planets which runs to July 6. Likely another high in that zone.
July 13-July 14 Not certain if that will be a turning point or an acceleration point.
Likely astro cycle low July 31 (Saturday) based on planetary configuation.
Hurst:
We are 36 days into the cycle that started May 12th. We are in the window, likely a little late, for the nominal 40 day midcycle low. We likely either made it today or Monday at the latest -- that being said, price is already lower than price projection target, which is a bad omen for the remainder of the cycle.
Expect a touch of the 20 week VTL on Monday in the worst case scenario in the 4145-4150 level, which also corresponds to the 55 day EMA and then a bounce next week until June 28-29. Best case scenario, a bounce to the 40 week VTL/40 day FLD around 4240.
Likewise the Dollar Index has made 3 massive leaps and broke through the channel defined by the 40 week and 40 day FLDs, but will likely be kept in check by the 20 week FLD as it starts decending into its nominal 40 day low, projected similarly for June 28th.
Projected Hurst 80 day cycle low - July 27-July 30.
Alternative Scenario
A major drop on Monday and close below the 55 day EMA and the market is truly cooked. We start a crescendo slide that won't stop until the 200 day EMA at 3830-50. This is likely going to be caused by a black swan event than current market action.
Summary
So bottom on Monday, move up to a ST high anywhere from June 28 to July 6.
Cycles and astro say there will be a decent drop from July 6 to July 30-July 31. Possibly will get going week of July 12.
Miscellaneous --
According to a few alternative/out there seasonal pattern theories that I follow, we should be making a ST turn today or Monday.
I did not get a sell signal either today or yesterday on SPX on any of my more reliable price action systems. They've always fired before a major turn down.
I kicked myself for not shorting the market today. My gut emotions are always a good contrarian indicator.
A 3% correction on the ES would be 4130, which would be 4145 on SPX.
A few gurus that I follow (and even subscribe to) are saying that the correction has started. They've been reliably wrong for months.
SPX
Dollar
 |
