Re <<Leave the cities,,, step one in ending the great ponzi scheme :)>>
.. but I like the Ponzi schema!
A reminder where I hail from, philosophically-speaking, a hoarder of value
The area Wang Chuk Hang (per this note to you back in 2011 Message 27265245 <<except wong chuk hang industrial real estate - latest chinese language press reports on coming and dramatic make-over of the area, and current transaction value at a still low low low of hkd 4k psf, though substantially higher than the sungib industrial building unit mac kindly helped my gold bunker club to buy at 1.8k psf in mid 2009.>> where we have most of our industrial loft properties bought at HK$ 900-1800 sft (current transaction value ~HK$ 9,000 sft as industrial lofts) is booming, as thousands emerge from the subway station that once was a mere magic marker "X" on development plan maps, to engage with residential goodness adjacent to the industrial lofts (which now mostly converted to uses as office, show rooms, galleries, teaching centers, and offices) at ~HK$ 35-40K sft scmp.com
Note: the drab-looking structures are industrial loft buildings w/ embedded deep-value as the society go all-in to add value top the neighbourhood in a heart-warming gusto zest
The definitive summary for one named RollaCosta Message 28834819 done in 2013 04 14
and some individual updates selected at random to the same rollacosta
2007 12 24 Message 24159988
(3) in the event of hkd de-pegging from usd engine, and hitched to rmb locomotive, (i) hkd cash generating assets (rental real estate on sure-lock corporate contracts under english common law) will zoom up in worth relative to usd, and (ii) power of panic to be enhanced by incoming hot rmb in advance of panic, assured by you-can-count-on-it inside information, thus assuring a WIN-WIN-WIN situation, and of course (iii) affording plenty of time for orderly exit from HKD arena, to land on the beaches of pulverized Maui, crushed Caribbean, and beaten down Europe, so as to WIN again. Panic is good for business of looting the burning house, and economic freedom assures unhindered capability to loot, without mercy, boldly, and in broad daylight. The underlying support for bullishness on HK remains as always in recent times, a very small island geography hitched to a booming and absolutely enormous continental economy, with an under-valued and negative-priced monetary flow coursing through its system, unhindered by constricting people fro and bothersome capital to, and certainly not burdened by troublesome officialdom tithing. HK will Money Rock in 2008! But just in case not, BUYGOLD.
2008 07 12 Message 24751987
must change frame of reference and state of mindset. (1) why would anyone want to unload unleveraged and income producing real estate that can be unloaded at basically a phone call, especially when one is looking to buy more? what? to only claim a 40% gain in a few months, or just a 100% gain for a year? why not just enjoy the rent ponied up like tribute month after month? compounding year after year? what else? assigned value going down dramatically? just buy more! am still holding debt-free full ocean apartment of 2,500 sft in repulse bay #19, bought in 1986, and now annual rent is at 31% of original cost, and bid by eager buyers is at 14.28x original cost. and you know the cost to landlord in hk on rental is effectively nildotzip over the years. but why sell? do what with the cash? not enough slowly wasting cash? did the cash flow stop? else why bother? leverage? why leverage? did the slowly wasting cash run out? ... why not just watch, learn, ruminate, and enjoy for a while, so as to make some deliberated decisions when the time is at hand, planets aligned, opportunities ripe, and looting gets to be truly good, meaning risk-free for huge gains, like buying kowloon tst real estate during depth of scary sars, and even then only in vulture packs and just levered at 50%.
2008 09 10 Message 24931589
... watching and hoping, and praying for destruction, but no movement as yet, and in fact prospective buyer offering 2x cost for something bought back in feb-april 2007 (price set-closing) based on prospective yield in relation to bank deposit, and we are saying 'must better offer before approaching board for approval' because we do not wish to increase yieldless cash one's allocation stance + feel on the future => dictate one's position regarding enthusiasm for ramp vs crash, and that, in effect, determines whether one is at null position.
2008 12 05 Message 25232014
i am very bullish on hk real estate enthusiastic may be a better term more so than ever prepared to buy buy buy at 70% discount from current levels ideally by leveraging what I hold when the time is right this game is an old game a sure game a game one can touch everyday a beautiful game
2009 08 01 Message 25830103
hello macrolla, re <<Run on HK real estate collapse too>> ... looks, by 20/20 hindsight, the combination pair trade involving long gold (890 on the date of your post, now 7% higher), short debt (1.25% borrowing rate in the interim since your post), long hk real estate (now 45-50% higher since the bad old days and terrible long nights of september 2008), would have worked out quite well ;0) where are you these days? recommendation: persevere in gold, for it is effectively still at an all-time low, and forward march on hk real estate, especially the absolutely inexpensive type in way of redevelopment paths and rejuvenation junctures, because the best days are still ahead.
2009 09 27 Message 25974193
<<in his office losing his trade>> i am up substantially ytd, something like 25%, without revaluing worthless real estate, all undeserved, mostly having nothing to do with office which in any case i only visit about once per week, and rather like it, being so in alignment with the force, in tune with the music, and in flow with the energy if now be the greater depression, which it is, imo, when marked against gold, that which is 9999 pure, precious but not strategic, useless but imperative, then it all be rather enjoyable, so, let us pray so that we can better prey, count our blessings so that we can count more later, and hope that the good times will last for another ... oh, say a decade and half again, when a greater abyss will be, followed by more of the same again btw, re hong kong real estate, looks like my in-law was correct, having noted that the idiots in hk make money, not the folks who over analyze and apply conventional learned methods; the idiots just buy, by and by, and buy again, once more, twice over, repeat, year after year. recommendation: gathergold, collect hk industrial estate, storesilver, pileplatinum
2010 03 29 Message 26420837
define recovery. i do not expect usa economy to recover for the next 10-25 years, and so hk real estate must have long time to run run and run still higher. i am wagering so. you are wagering on usa recovery, are you? btw, fyi, the industrial units i engaged with at between hkd 900 - 1850, which you poopooed, are now at hkd 2,350 psft, and all rented out at between 6.8 and 4.5% yields. i expect a 10x starting now within 7 years, and rmb re-valuation, should it ever happen, would further boost returns in usd/hkd terms, not to mention hkd revaluing against usd. ask me if i feel deservingly fortunate that i took my own advice :0)
2010 04 22 Message 26479524
hkg housing is expensive because of pure demand, and simple supply, and the rental yield at net 4% is extremely competitive against 0% interest on deposit as well as against 1.85% rate on mortgage loans but you know all that, just refusing to submit to the truth as all the whining real estate bears i quoted shorting hkg real estate market as a renter is a mug's game buying own residence in hkg allows effectively cost-free living, in the final analysis so simple, and yet so much misunderstanding recommendation: buythedips, allthedips, especiallythebigdips, given that all the dips are cyclical in nature, and all the rises are structurally based, in alignment with once in 800-years renaissance of dynamism
2010 04 25 Message 26487572
what mortgage? oh, the 50-70% mortgage the 30-50% equity people are supposed to abandon because some would be selling their real estate to invest ... where? your analysis is not only faulty, but funny btw, as the mainland authorities are talking tough on real estate speculation (investment) even as too many folks have not nearly enough living space, i expect the surplus funds powered excess enthusiasm to leak and then gush into hong kong recommendation: engage with ocean view any place and soon-enough-to-be converted industrial units everywhere am looking at the club's balance sheet and golly, everything bought within the past 3 years against your advice has doubled, and stand to double again - blessed be those operating in alignment with the correct premise
2010 08 21 Message 26749171
you keep saying that, without considering the more realistic possibility, because you are not of enough merit, that when china real estate hiccups, even more money would flood into safe haven hong kong, to engage with freedom and partake in liberty
2011 09 24 Message 27659196
you have been short hk real estate for a long long long time ... if you did not have it, you were short. in the mean time i am readying to buy more hk real estate and hope for a break, for the last 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, ... 120 months have been wonderful, per correct macro read, and the next 12, 24, 36 ... 120 months should be better than wonderful, i.e. fantastic. the unleveraged rental is just rolling in, wonderful month after fantabulous month, pressurizing the machinery to add to that which has worked so nicely. anyone who lives in hk and had been short hk real estate have been crushed, per wrong macro read. |
