Yes. I agree with that...
Not only have the pundits in the videos predicted 5 of the last zero market crashes, just in the year so far... they've also predicted ten times more "gold/silver to the moon" events of the zero that we have seen happen this year... unless you count the move off the bottom we've seen put in April to May... in which case I'd say the moon must have a much closer orbit than I was thinking...
I remember hearing the same things about gold and silver all the way back in 1963... as the silver was about to be removed from U.S. coinage in the future ? Remember the Feds rolling in on a local coin shop I frequented as a kid... arresting the owners for melting down junk silver coins to sell the bullion at a premium...
But, silver to the moon ? I'm still waiting... but, I did buy some physical silver in the early 90's when it was under $4... when no one else thought that a good idea. I particularly like the spoons, more than the forks.
I see pundits predicting silver at $700 or whatever ? That will only happen in a hyperinflation event when it is the dollars losing value, not the silver gaining... Because we don't have a shortage of silver... we only have a shortage of silver at the current price... With silver at $60 in 2021 dollars... the silver shortage will be resolved in less than three or four years. And, I think silver at $60 is pretty reasonable... with oil at $74... and gold at $1800-$1900... And, owning silver mining shares with silver doubling in value... with that boost in income having a multiple applied to it ? A lower than lunar orbit might work out OK...
But, there is an error lurking in the denigration of the tin-foil hatters... as in the expectation that extraordinary events are not possible. Change does happen. And it often happens discontinuously... which is only the more true of change of the extraordinary type... crashes and explosions... are sudden events... whether in cars and airplanes, or chemical factories... or in market prices...
A prepared mind will understand the nature of the uncertainty... knowing that the extraordinary is infrequent, maybe even implausible in some circumstances... but not impossible.
Change often surprises people... only because they are unprepared for it... often by choice, because listening to the noise increasing in volume before hand is too much of a bother... and not because there wasn't plenty of indication among the tin foil hatters that it was inevitable... no longer implausible... and thus not only bound to happen sometime... but increasingly likely to be "soon"... soooon... still being "believe it when i see it"... not "unwilling to see it even when it happens"... as will be true of others.
I also never thought I'd see it happen... that the American media would be censored as it is... or that the outcome of elections would be determined by obvious frauds... but, I see it... and not in denial about it ? [Edit... Antifa/BLM terrorists burning cities down... with politicians cheering them on... viruses being let loose... decimating the world economy... etc, etc., as if there are not "extraordinary" events that have happened just in the last two years? ]
It is important to learn to discriminate between the possible, the inevitable, and the probable... rationally.
It is just as wrong to dismiss the potential of an inevitable event in the near term... no matter how exotic it seems in current context... as it is to assume that the world you see now... will never change...
And, somewhere in there... is buried a bit of awareness re the nature of brittleness... as error in expectation. |
