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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (29249)6/29/2021 10:10:52 AM
From: The Ox1 Recommendation

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ajtj99

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I think the FED was fine with rates rising until they blew past 2 on the 30 year. They ran so fast to 2.5 and that quickly painted them into a corner. They've managed and jawboned rates since March and it's hard for me to believe they'll continue to want them to trend lower more than a quarter point from here (again, on the 30 year).

As ST posted, the money created has/had to go somewhere and its natural for money to go straight into housing, autos and other big ticket consumer options. 30 year rates bouncing between say 1.8 and 2.5/2.8 for another year would, I believe, be acceptable and manageable.

They will slowly pull away the punchbowl and as they do, there will be disconnects between where money has been flowing and what new homes it may turn to.

Wages, as a % of the economy, have been suppressed for decades except for those at the highest end of the wage scale.
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