*AV* -- I have 18 messages from December that I have still to catch up on, so this is a flash from the past. I may be late but I try not to totally neglect any comments or questions.
Andrew, I would love to get your reaction to this article:
Specifically, which semi equip companies, in your opinion, should benefit from:
"IC manufacturers are now designing fabs to enable mixing the production flow of DRAMs (and other memories) and logic devices. This will enable them to react flexibly to any unstable supply-and-demand balance in the DRAM market and to produce highly integrated systems of LSI-embedded microprocessor, DRAM, logic and other intellectual properties such as high-speed SRAM, audio, video or 3D graphics accelerator, etc., in one chip."
Yes - the idea of mixing logic and DRAM in the same fab is an excellent strategy to use to soften the blow of the DRAM Wars and the shifts in IC market demand.
I am sure you are quite aware that there is life after DRAMs for those DRAM fabs that become obsolted for more state of the art DRAM production facilities. They become state of the art ASIC manufacturing sites. Funny thing is that they haven't realized this strategy sooner. It all has to do with limiting the fabs to high volume and low mix to maximize the efficiencies of these fabs. Doing ASICs or Logic devices affects the high volume - low mix paradigm and shifts it to more of a lower volume higher mix scenario.
There are inherent generic differences in Memory vs Logic manufacturing. However, a great generalization would be that ASIC/Logic producers have superior backend technology (inter level dielectrics and metallization) while the front end (transistors)of the memory fabs are far superior. A marriage of the two could actually benefit both. There are more similarities than there are differences thjough.
The glitch to all this is that some Logic and ASIC devices cannot be ramped up and down as you see fit. It is more of a steady stream of products since its products have specific customers that rely on a steady flow of products. DRAMs are definitely a commodity product whereas Logic and ASIC devices have a narrower customer base. There are enough common process steps that integrating both into your fab infrastructure is an excellent overall strategy instead of running some fabs under capacity.
In a Vance type world, if you had 3 wafer fabs, you would dedicate 1 fab to DRAMs/Memory and one to ASIC/Logic with the 3rd fab being an integrated Fab to absorb the shift in device demand. You would be able to ramp it up an down as needed with the products you need.
This is really no different from what many ASIC manufacturers do with their foundry partners. Most seem to have a 20% buffer they build with foundry services such as TSMC or Chartered. They keep their own fabs full by having 120% or more wafer demand from customers, and when the industry turns down, they can eat into the 20% at the foundries by ramping them down prior to eating into their own capacity utilization. That is why these foundries, to counteract this, have locked in new types of contracts that guarantee certain volumes (dso they are not completely ramped down) or have the customer foot the bill for some of the installed equipment base.
Some of the new foundries being built are being done with IC manufacturing partners. WaferTech in the Pacific Northwest will take on Analog Devices, Altera and I think Linear Technology as partners in the venture.
Back to your comments. What you mentioned is a logical and similar type strategy for the Memory Producers who very rarely use foundry services. The integration of both can be the same type of buffer for industry downturns or DRAM gluts that occasionally arise.
BTW-When Hyundai bought the ASIC faciliies that were part of the old AT&T GIS Microelectronics group, they must have had that in mind. I speak from experience since that was what their plan was also.
Sorry for the delay but your assessments and cmments were right on.
Andrew |
