We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon
Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
I think from more of a "big picture" perspective... the only reason the U.S. ever went in there at all... had mostly to do with the Russian's failure to sustain any real ability to manage its own "sphere of influence"... in the wake of the collapse of the USSR. "Chaos on Russia's border"... after the Russians withdrew... likely seemed somewhat less of a good idea post 9/11 with Bin Laden associated jihadis having free run of the place...
The U.S. effort to get Bin Laden... undermined by the CIA and/or its friends there... might well have proven a limit to the U.S. interest sooner... had it been allowed to be successful earlier in the process. I think a lot of those guys were thinking about it no more deeply, post 9/11, as "someone has to do it"... when Russia couldn't... the regional interest not being only Afghanistan... but, "stability" more widely...
But, the U.S. did a credible enough job the last few years of "keeping a lid on it"... without it costing too much, and without it being all that much of a war... it settling down into about as least violent a place as Afghanistan ever tends to be... none of which is really an overly compelling argument re a strategic necessity or a practical reason for being there at all... without a viable purpose or plan tied to any compelling American self interest ... or the will to be there for some reason... to do more than sustain a holding action. How much of a "blunder" though... without having any real intent to engage in a land war for conquest ?
More of a waste of resources... that might have been better spent elsewhere... or better minimized for the same effect... with better plans and better leadership...
In the same time, most of the rest of the former Soviet periphery has become more or less independent, and more or less prosperous, and more or less stable in result of the pairing of the Russian retreat back to Russia... with the containment of Afghani interest inside Afghanistan... the project likely more useful in enabling that two fer than anything else.
The ending of the costs imposed on Americans by the American withdrawal... aren't likely to be an issue for Americans. The odds the Taliban will want to send Americans another engraved invitation for an extended visit... likely pretty low... while there's plenty enough of interest happening locally to keep a country full of crazed jihadis busy doing other things for a long time. Same thing, more or less, happened in Syria quite a while back already... and the net impact on Americans has been... one less thing to worry about... while really not all that much else has changed otherwise ?
If China/Pakistan choose to try to support the Taliban overtly... should still expect others, including India, will still opt to support the government... or other Taliban opponents... and that's likely to amplify regional tensions some... but, too soon, right now, to make many predictions about the future there... even as steering clear of the word "outcome"... as the locals seem unable to make choices that work to keep others out... and prove unable to keep them out by other means...
The U.S. / NATO presence removed Afghanistan as an issue others had to worry much about... and without that effort being sustained, others with local interests will have to worry about it a lot more...
