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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum
MU 241.14-6.7%Dec 12 9:30 AM EST
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To: PAinvestor who wrote (27718)2/4/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo  Read Replies (1) of 53903
 
PA, agree w/ your long-term assessment, but I'd offer that
there's a certain cyclicality to the market for this particular
security that is only tangential to the fundamental realities.
Some people share your views and are legitimately investing, but
IMHO this appears to be a stock with a very high "winky, winky"
factor.

You bring up another interesting data point that fits in w/ the
"replay of the August 1997 short squeeze" hypothesis:

the front page of the Nikkei Shinbun in Japan ran an
article stating that Hyundai Electronics will stop producing
16meg DRAM from February

I seem to recall that some of the Asian players were reported
to be doing the exact same thing around the first week of
August 1997.

Call the below table "Anatomy of a short-squeeze" or "Deja MU":

Jul/Aug 1997 Jan/Feb 1998
Conference Robbie Stephens Montgomery
Presentation

The analyst of the Dan Niles John Joseph
host firm touts it
the next day

"Big wheels" pile on Tom Kurlak Ralph Acampora
one week after the
presentation

Reports of Asian Yes Yes
competitors stopping
production?

Follows brief rally
in DRAM pricing? Yes Yes

Peaks @ roughly Yes ?
50% high-low
retracement

Obviously it's foolish to expect that the exact same peak
followed by drop will occur (as I'm hard pressed to think
of anything remotely similar to TK's reversal), but I find
the parallels interesting.

Good trading,

Tom
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