| | | My argument simply requires thoughtful consideration of possible outcomes. These are six, in my view.
First, it works, in most respects, with no consequences.
Second, it does not work, but there are no serious ill consequences.
Third, it works but has some non-serious ill consequences in a small percentage of cases.
Fourth, it doesn’t work but there are some non-serious ill consequences in a small percentage of cases
Fifth, it works with some serious ill consequences in a small percentage of cases.
Sixth, it doesn’t work and has some serious ill consequences in a small percentage of cases.
Please note that the vaccines would have never been approved if serious consequences were the result in a significant percentage of cases. I discount this set of possibilities because the evidence does not support such a result.
If someone is willing to accept some small percentage of both non-serious and serious outcomes, then the choice is clear, especially because the consequences for the elderly, obese, diabetic, immuno-suppressed, etc., are so drastic. Those who are not willing to accept small risks are playing COVID-19 roulette. In my estimation, the chances of getting the disease are significantly higher than the risk of a serious untoward outcome caused by a vaccination.
The choice not to get vaccinated is not agnostic. Agnosticism implies a lack of belief in the existence of the unknowable because it is unknowable. This is not Pascal’s Wager, where Pascal believed in God because the consequences are dire if he did not (there are lots of other logical problems with PW).
Agnosticism is a refusal to make a choice because of the ill-founded belief that reasonable choices cannot be made. Rejecting vaccination is a conscious (negative) choice that ignores the fact that the range of possible outcomes, while not guaranteed, is overwhelmingly acceptable, especially for high-risk groups. And this is exactly what the real world has shown.
My personal experience has been fantastic. No longer locked down, no longer do I have to wear a mask (except when I travel), no longer fearful, I can participate in group activities without socially distancing, etc. The liberation from fear has been terrific. |
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