Hi AJ,
I understand your view.
I do not see it being an all or nothing proposition.
I do see EV's getting cheaper and better.
But very slowly compared to legislators who overestimate the impact of their legislation.
I would reference the Paris Climate Agreement as an example.
It is one thing pass legislation of intent. It is quite another to actually make an impact and do it in such a way that it is accepted by the masses, as in make it affordable.
If not the ICE is by far the better answer for storing energy and it is usable in all environments.
The EV makes sense in urban environments and countries with small geography.
The California legislation eliminating natural gas going to new homes and the tentative legislation eliminating ICE being sold in the state will provide a good tests of the masses accepting an over reach of the government.
If Newsome is removed as governor by an election, I suspect a lot of this unpopular legislation will get slammed and not put into action.
It's nice to have reliable electricity.
Unintended consequences have an impact on the public's acceptance and conformity.
So far the EV is very slow to be embraced, not popular by many who have bought, sold and returned to ICE's.
There is a reason for that.
The resale on the intial EV's introduced is horrible, and battery replacement exceeds the resale of the cars, and recycling fees are the final disposal alternative.
That is not a solution for total embracement by the public.
There is so much exaggeration of the EV's total acceptance, that I really do consider it a bubble, based on over zealous expectations.
I remember CSCO making claims about your computer being wireless, and all commerce would be electronic. Walmart was going to be replaced by amazon.
Yet here we are 22 years later and e commerce is 25 % of retail. Walmart has now embraced e commerce and they are doing quite well, as admittedly Amzn has continued to grow.
It always takes longer. The internet did, the computer did, the smart phone did. None of those consumer items are durable goods.
The evolution of a durable good, to make it dominate, will take more time than any of the early adopters and ambassadors of the goods will suspect.
I suspect that GM, Ford, and Fiat, will have large write offs on over investment of EV's for the US market in the next coming recession.
Just my spin from a guy who loves his buggy whip. LOL
Bob |
