[off topic]
Jan --
I'm so new to both companies I hesitate to say much. If I have a strength, it's in having a feel for the over-all telecommunications market, having followed the ADSL sector since late '95. I also hear a lot through industry contacts, and, granted, their opinions may be biased, but at least they're close to the source. :)
As for Cisco, I would imagine there's enormous pressure to keep the "80-ton Gorilla" image intact. Actually, I rather enjoy the image of these Silicon Valley whiz-kids doing cartwheels for J. Michael Armstrong, Ray Smith and Charles Lee. Of course I'm perverse enough I'd like to see Oprah interview the Queen.
Chambers admitted they need a telecommunications partner. Alcatel's a start, so's NEC, but who's the US giant? Would Lucent be content to partner or will they insist on owning? I honestly don't know, but I think the answer impacts Ascend. If there is a LU-ASND buyout, I'd guess it wouldn't happen till April when LU's free to do stock for stock transactions. At least this is how I understood it back when LU was rumored to be in talks with Amati. (Actually, DMG.) Don't ask the reasons behind this, I honestly don't know --- only that it had to do with the break-up of AT&T.
At any rate, Chambers said there'll be more consolidation in an industry on the fast track to convergence. He's a bit paranoid on market share, but in this I believe he's right.
Later --
Pat |
