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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA

AMD 258.90

+9.0%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Vattila who wrote (42071)	7/27/2021 3:05:25 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (2) of 72297

My entry: 3.74B, 0.60c/sh, 3.95B Q3 My rambling thoughts are below: AMD Guidance: 3.6B +/-100M 47% GM 50% FY growth. Q1 was 3.45B 2020 FY was 9.76B x 1.5 = 14.64B – (3.45 + 3.6) = 7.59B/2 = 3.795B each for Q3 and Q4 if flat. Intel beat Q1 guidance by 3.9%. If AMD did the same, that would be 1.039x 3.6 = 3.74B That is 3.74 – 3.45 = 290M + over Q1 x 0.47GM => 136M/1.2Bshs = 11cents/share. That would say 52 + 11 = 63c/shr. But they always fritter some of it away, I’ll go with +8 so that is 60c/sh Intel raised their full year guidance by only 1.4% vs Q1 guidance. No help there for AMD. AMD 2020 Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4: 1.79B, 1.93B, 2.8B, 3.24B and AMD grew 45% YoY. 2H/1H 2020 = 6.04/3.72 = 1.62. But this huge half split was largely due to console being dead in 1H and being well recovered in 2H. If we take that as 600M average/qtr, then 1H would have been 3.72 + 1.2 = 4.92. That gives a half split of 6.04/4.92 = 1.22 2021 H1: = 3.45 + 3.6 = 7.05 x 1.22 = 8.60/2 = 4.30. But push Q3 down a little and Q4 up a little, and I’ll pick 4.0B for Q3. This would also result in FY growth of 15.65/9.76B = +60%, a raise from 50% current guidance.

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