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Re <<make it a near-certainty that nothing will happen>>
Sounds about correct, but I reckon for different reasons than the ones you cited.
I believe the <<Taiwan>>-Mainland Reunification question shall be addressed within context of the larger and overarching question, that of China achieving 36% of global GDP, and should not require a fight on anyone's part, unless someone choosing to do Hail Mary. It is just a question of position-position-position, per time-time-time. The question shall not disappear, and answering must happen. So far trajectory tracking true, and is about correct.
In the meantime, Taiwan finding it necessary to train still more engineers and faster, to feed the vortex by which they are lost. Semiconductor sector is Taiwan's last line of defence, and it had been breached sometime ago.
China <<elderly>> care is trending okay, I reckon, because of family-values, etc etc and respect for the elderly, etc etc etc, and given the social experiments already tee-ed up. Recognition of an issue is half the work, and by that benchmark, needed work (societal recognition, dialogue, unity of purpose, social experimentation, staging, rollout) ~75% done; and no, holistic workout requires neither immigration nor emigration.
On the journey towards 2032, after way-point of 2026, the pivot to 36% global GDP might be achieved by combination of impetus vectors, ranging from absolute growth, to flips of exchange rates, and likely generally just a matter of mathematics.
Elon is right and Musk is wrong.
(1) As far as innovation is concerned I make the observation that it has been 5 years since China launched the quantum communication satellite, and subsequent commercialisation has already taken root in the domestic market, that which I have often-enough described as a parallel universe, and yet, no competition in sight.
(2) The recent and on-going crackdown on China Big Tech is excellent news, in that such, above all else, encourages innovation by the startups no longer automatically strangled or subsumed by the big fellows.
(3) As far as Space X is concerned, Musk is right and wrong, that Space X competitor is both China State, as well as China private enterprise technologyreview.com
(4) The crux of the kernel of his observation is absolute GDP, that which trumps all ...
