Powell defines "transitory" in terms of MOPE... big news ZH buried below a throwaway headline...
What you should note is Powell's emphasis on Management of Performance Expectations (ie., lying to manipulate others behavior)... has now corrupted them to the degree that they have decided they can manage their own expectations... of the management of others expectations... so that what they want to be true is automatically defined as being true. And, that is what is being reported as true... not any reality (whether or not they believe it). But, because they've decided reality is, all and only, defined by "what they mislead people into expecting" ? They use that to justify lying to you about what THEY expect... and think doing that unfailingly changes outcomes in reality... ?
Of course, that's fatuous... Reality does not depend on what we believe to be true... but what is true. There is a range of potential within reality... in which opinions dictate market participants choices... and choices made influence others behavior. But, that occurs only within a range... that has LIMITS...
Expectations may influence others choices... but they DO NOT define reality... Reality is never wrong... and others choices often are... So, the choice is only one of whether policy will be based on "what is right" or will amplify risks by being based on what is known to be untrue... in the expectation lies will always work.
Every six year old knows better... but control of the global economy is in the hands of four year olds...
Independent of that "range" in which MOPE may work... and its absolute limits... is the question of the long term impact of imposing a system that is deliberately based in fraud... by adopting a purposeful lack of integrity... so that all policy is determined by known error in opinion. Intending that fraud... rather than working to better correlate opinion with reality ? That prevents market participants making more functional decisions... prevents market participants choices BETTER aligning market functions with reality ? Rather than fostering deliberately dysfunctional systems... by pursuing agenda divorced from optimizing market efficiency... by NOT telling the truth... perhaps we should do the opposite ?
If the Fed broadcasts that their expectation is: prices will decline below the cost of production and be sustained there... forever... ? That's obviously not possible. But, that's what they're trying to do...
That is essentially what "they" have been "expecting" about the price of silver for a couple of decades now... while ignoring that the massive surplus in an already mined silver stockpile (that used to exist)... has been drawn down to zero... leaving no surplus in supply... but aggregating deficits... while leaving no capacity in expanded mining potential that is capable of filling the need in consumption... that USED to be met from drawing down the pre-existing stockpiles...
Note the means by which they foster error in expectation in silver... includes trading large volumes of fraudulent paper silver ? The fraud... is real.
That fraud can't work in reality... after the pre-existing stockpiles are exhausted... Suppression of price in that case... causes shortages as supply is insufficient to meet demand... That is happening now... as demands for delivery in markets that exist to enable good delivery... is denied... and unmet demand proves supply is in deficit... and the deficit is growing.
Repeat that, throughout the economy... ? Silver is not the only instance in which that case is real ? That's why there IS inflation... because Fed policy based in fraud has killed real production... has even killed real production as a goal of the system... forcing us into shortages... with no capacity to have them be resolved in the short term... by the function of a system focused on... the opposite of reality.
And, expecting that demand will be met... while prices are sustained below the cost of production... ?
They're insane.... Can't happen.
Here it is:
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Last week, the fiat Federal Reserve note chairman Jerome Powell defined "transitory" regarding higher inflation rates we are seeing.
The concept of transitory is really this: it is that, uh, the increases will happen. We're not saying they will reverse. That's not what transitory means. It means that the increases in prices will happen, so there will be inflation, but that the process of inflation, uh, will stop so that, so that there won't be furth- uhn fur-.. When we, when we think of inflation we really think of inflation going up year up year upon year upon year - that's inflation. When you have inflation for 12 months, or whatever it might be, I'm just taking an example, I'm not making a estimate, then you have a price increase, but you don't have an inflation process. And so, uh, part of that just is, uh, if it doesn't affect [OUR] longer term inflation expectations then it's very likely not to infect, eh to, to affect the process of inflation going forward. So what what what I mean by transitory is just something that doesn't leave a permanent mark on the inflation process.
Again, we don't mean, I don't mean, that, that, that, that, you know, producers are gonna take those price increases back - that's, that's not the idea. It's just that they won't go on indefinitely. So, to the extent people are, are, are implementing price increases because raw materials are going up, or labor costs, or something's going up, um, uh, you know, the question really for inflation really is 'Does that mean they are going to up the next year by the same amount, so you're gonna be in a process where inflation, the inflation process, gets going?' And that happens because people's expectations about future, uh, inflation mo-, move up. And we don't think that's happening, there's no evidence that it's happening, all the evidence is that it's not happening, but, nonetheless, we have to watch this very carefully because this is, you know, uh uh, we have two mandates: maximum employment and price stability: price stability for us means inflation averaging two percent over time, and so, we've gotta be very careful about that.
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