Tenchu's Thoughts: The Surge and Decline of COVID-19 in India
TLDR:
- 2/3 of Indians have COVID antibodies.
- Less than 10% of Indians are fully vaccinated.
- Death toll in India is likely to be 4M.
- Based on this, the death rate from COVID in India is 0.4%
I just saw a WSJ article on the decline of COVID-19 in India:
WSJ - As Covid-19 Recedes in India, Bars Are Full and Masks Are Optional
A key quote from the WSJ article:
Public health experts say the decline in cases is partly due to regional lockdowns in April and May that forced businesses to close and people to hunker down at home. And after coronavirus ripped through the country, a large percentage of the population now have some level of immunity. About two-thirds of Indians have antibodies, according to a study by the Indian Council on Medical Research released last month. The article also mentions that less than 10% of India's population are fully vaccinated.
On the other hand, the death toll in India is likely to be four million, which is ten times what the official count is:
WSJ - India’s Covid-19 Death Toll Is Likely in the Millions, Study Finds
Interesting to note that India is ground zero for the Delta variant. (Heck, it's named Delta because the WHO didn't want to call it the "India" variant. Cause you know, racism ...)
Based on these estimates, which are still rough but the best we've got, and you end up with a death rate of 0.4%, which seems to jibe with all the other numbers I've seen around the world.
Bottom line is that India probably had no other choice but to rely on "nAtUrAl iMmUnItY" to get over COVID-19. With a population of almost 1.4B, that's an effective way to "cull the herd," if you believe in Darwin.
"A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic." - Josef Stalin
Tenchusatsu |
