<<It seems one analyst has extrapolated an anecdote into a trend>>
Bob, I don't know who you're talking about, but it's certainly reasonable to question the speed of DUV implementation. Three or four months ago, most everyone was saying that the only constraints on DUV were Cymer's production levels and the availability of fused silica. Well, that was wrong. Now the party line is that any slowness is due to short-term pushouts because of Asian currency problems.
I remember several general stock analysts worrying about companies being able to mask problems by attributing all earnings problems to Asia. Now Nikon says its scanner, er, stepper sales <g> will be down another 50 this year, predominantly DUV pushouts. (And to stray off on a tangent, how much are Asian DRAM shops, one of Nikon's principal DUV target markets, going to need a stepper with a 22mm field in a year or two? I doubt they'll want them for 256mb fabs, I don't know, I'm asking -- are they suitable for 64's, even?)
I've heard quite a few reports about problems, and ever since Brett Hodess was so soundly denounced for even hinting that Cymer/Nikon might have technical troubles -- which turned out to be 100% correct -- I've kept an open mind.
And please understand, I'm talking about speed of implementation (and therefore earnings), not ultimate outcome, which in everyone's mind has DUV /.25um as a practical necessity.
And one other thing on my alleged mind -- there is a tiny question mark in my mind, having watched the unexpected difficulties in implementing DUV to commercial .25um production, about whether this progression of steps (.18 then .13 then .10 and so on) is going to happen at all, or at least pose a couple of huge surprises, especially when the drop the wavelength to the 190 A range. Is there going to be suitable glass and optics for production by then? I wouldn't want to stake my life on it.
(Dumbest thieves of the year: Just reported (this is true) that a stolen computer van was found today and the cargo was missing. The haul? An entire load of 4MB DRAM chips. Better fence 'em fast.) |
