Fred to restrengthen before aiming for Florida
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug. 12, 2021 10:07 AM EDT
Fred packs potential to restrengthen ahead of its US arrival
As the season’s sixth-named storm continues to develop this week, experts say the timing of its northward turn will determine its U.S. impacts.
Fred emerged from Hispaniola as a poorly organized tropical depression on Thursday morning. But, AccuWeather meteorologists say the system could eventually regain tropical-storm force — or even hurricane force — as it churns up the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fred will threaten to make two U.S. landfalls, both of which could occur in Florida.
AccuWeather forecasters have rated Fred a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for the United States. Damaging winds and coastal flooding are both likely to result from Fred, but AccuWeather forecasters are most concerned by the threat of excessive rainfall and flooding that could ensue if the storm slows down significantly over the southeastern U.S. as predicted.
"People need to remain vigilant about this system as it is likely to make a comeback prior to reaching the U.S. this weekend," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"There is a good chance for two landfalls in the U.S. with Fred with the first likely in the Florida Keys early Saturday and the second likely over northern Florida by early next week," Rayno said.
On Thursday, Fred was about 80 miles northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph -- down from 45 mph a day earlier. It was moving west-northwest at 16 mph. Tropical storm watches remained in effect for Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and parts of Cuba on Thursday, despite Fred’s downgrade to a tropical depression Wednesday evening.
There are some hurdles that the storm will face in order to maintain strength through late this week. Dry air is one factor that may come into play as the storm navigates the Greater Antilles into Friday. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, with peaks reaching as high as 10,000 feet, have already distorted and even weakened the tropical system. The high terrain tends to disrupt the circulation of tropical systems, which dwell in the lower part of the atmosphere.
Fred is anticipated to travel across water as it passes Cuba; however, due to the close proximity to land, strengthening will likely be a slow process.
This animation, taken early Thursday morning, Aug. 12, 2021, shows Fred as it negotiated the large, mountainous island of Hispaniola (center) and departed onto the water. Puerto Rico appears to the right of center. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
It’s not out of the question that Fred could diminish altogether due to these influences by Friday, but AccuWeather meteorologists believe that Fred will survive and may even re-organize near the northern coast of Cuba later Friday and Friday night. That has set the stage for concerns in the U.S., with impacts due to a strengthening tropical storm expected to begin by this weekend. There is even the potential for Fred to regain enough strength to reach hurricane status while in the Gulf of Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with Fred may reach parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys as early as Friday afternoon and evening as the system continues to move to the northwest. |
