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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: roto who wrote (33599)8/17/2021 3:41:36 PM
From: Sun Tzu3 Recommendations

Recommended By
ajtj99
roto
towerdog

  Read Replies (3) of 97594
 
I've decided to drop this discussion because it brings back too many bitter memories. I have 1st hand experience of too many critical events of that time period. I was there. There are a number of critical behind the scene discussions during the late '70s that are still not declassified to the national archives.

But I leave you with a few pointers that if you are interested, you can pull on and see where it leads you.

* The US gave substantial support to many anti-shah forces. At least half of the early post revolutionary Iranian power brokers had been lobbied for by the US during Shah's time. A good chunk of the first revolutionary Iranian government were American dual citizens and had US connections ranging from policy advisory to arms dealing. Carter (or rather his aids) thought they know and can control these people. That was extremely naive.

* Meeting with Khomeini in Paris was deliberate and gave the implicit message of support. It also meant that he should not be touched. His return to Iran was a very big deal.

* The "Green Belt" idea was extremely stupid. As I said in a previous post, you cannot lump any part of the Middle East with any other part. Each country there is extremely complex on its own. Compounding that complexity by lumping them together is insane.

* I am leaving you with a two part documentary on Afghanistan. It is mostly accurate and unbiased. Any Vietnam vet will relate to the Soviet experience in part 2 very well. But it helps to watch part 1 for a historical perspective. In part one, the producer tries to put the British defeat in a modern context by saying, "It was as if the US forces were to leave Afghanistan and put the Taliban in charge." Now that is ironic prescience!!

* Because the documentary is more a narrative of events and not deeply analytical, the producer misses on a few critical points:

(1) The rise of the Taliban and the Salafists was the direct result of US apathy and short sightedness. The fact that the US did not care about Afghanistan and just wanted as many Soviets killed as possible with as little cost and direct connection back to the US, is what allowed the outsourcing of the policy to the Saudis and the ISS. These two were not unbiased conduits of weapons and money. They passed the aid on to their like-minded groups. Had the US backed Ahmad Shah Masood, there likely would have been a very different ending.

(2) Some people in the early '80s wondered if Amin was nudged (indirectly but intentionally) by the US to act in order to force the Soviet's hand into invading Afghanistan. I personally don't think the agency is that clever or far thinking. But there is some evidence that at least some people looked at the prospect of such course of events favorably.

(3) It is true that the Afghans are very religious and conservative. But it is not true that they wanted the Taliban for their religious zeal. The Taliban were the only group that provided them with law and order. That was (and still is) their only appeal.

(4) Nobody talks about why 9/11 happened. It is always treated so very superficially that is cartoonish. Like all big events, it had multiple reasons. There were a set of key events that allowed some factions to take advantage of and give the green light to OBL to attack NYC. At its root, it was again a cultural misunderstanding. You may want to dig into that. HINT it had something to do with oil - what a surprise!

OK, here are the links to the Afghan documentary:



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