Xi's bailiwick seems to be doing fine relative to other regimes, at the moment
So am not concerned about it today.
More alarming, yesterday's report ...
Today's Market Comments:
That did not take long. The Stock Market generated an official Hindenburg Omen Tuesday, August 17th, with a second observation in as many days. It had up to 30 days to get a second observation, but chose to do so immediately. All technical events necessary for a major stock market top and new Bear Market are now in place.
It is important that the stock market be on an H.O. for a stock market crash to occur, since all crashes have occurred with one of these rare signals on the clock, and there have been no crashes in the past 35 years without one. New NYSE Highs were 87 Tuesday, with New Lows rising sharply to 100. The lower of the two is above the 2.2% of total NYSE issues traded threshold, with the McClellan Oscillator negative, and the NYSE rising over the past ten weeks. For the theory and history of these signals, we refer you to our article at the Guest Articles button at the left of the home page at www.technicalindicatorindex.com .
This H.O. coordinates well with the market patterns, wave mappings, major divergences, weakening breadth and volume, and overbought measures that warn of a coming major stock market decline.
The other development is that there is a dangerous Bearish divergence between the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line and both the NYSE stock market Index and the S&P 500. We show this rather large and growing divergence in charts tonight on page 63. This is another of those important early warnings that almost all major stock market Bear markets receive before they start. It is now here, this divergence two months long now, from mid-June 2021 to the present.
The odds of a major stock market plunge, which likely also means serious events are coming that will surprise investors, are rising. Based upon all that is happening with the technicals, we speculate that this top and plunge could arrive sometime from late August to mid-September +/- a week or so.
Stock prices fell sharply across the board intraday Tuesday, with partial retracement bounces occurring into the close. The stock market is nearing conclusion of the Bull market rally from March 2020, and the Bull market from decades ago in larger degree.
Patterns are the stock market speaking to us, letting us know where they are headed next. They are the accumulation of all knowledge on the planet from all sources, and the patterns identify the next major trends we can expect.
The next question as far as pattern and wave mapping is concerned, is, has the top arrived? Is the top in with Tuesday's decline? To answer this, we will focus on the short-term wave mapping for the Industrials shown in the charts on pages 36, 37, and particularly 38. Based upon these charts, we believe the top is not in. Tuesday's decline was either all of a wave d-down move within a termination top Rising Bearish Wedge from June 21st, or is subwave a-down of d-down. What this means is there needs to be a final wave e-up to finish patterns and mappings of several degrees of trend. The reason we think this is the case is that Tuesday's decline was only three subwaves, not five, and the rebound late in the day invaded the space of wave 1, which cannot happen in an impulsive Elliott Wave, so became an EW stop sign for the decline. In other words, it has not chance to be five waves down. We show this clearly on page 38. What this means is that based upon proportionality of waves seen since June, the top should arrive in that window we are expecting, late August into early September +/- a week.
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are finishing the final leg of intermediate term Bearish Wedges, again, leading to a major top and coming significant decline. Small caps are inside a sideways pattern that could / should lead to one final breakout higher over the next few weeks or so, then a major top.
Trannies have quietly fallen over 2000 points, 12 percent, since April 2021, and have formed a major Dow Theory non-confirmation with the Industrials. This is not good for the markets' future, and is something to expect at a major developing top. Trannies are telling us there are problems with shipping, whether it is passengers or goods.
There were several changes to our short-term stock market key trend-finder indicators from Tuesday's price and internals action. The three-component Blue-Chip key trend-finder indicator moved to Neutral from Buy, as the 14 day Stochastic triggered a Sell. The NASDAQ 100 three-component NDX key short-term trend-finder indicator moved to a Neutral signal as both the NDX Purchasing Power Indicator and the NDX 14 day Stochastic triggered new Sells. The small cap Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator generated a new Sell signal. Also, the Blue Chip 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a new Sell, and its Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to Neutral. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a new Sell.
The S&P 500 has formed a large Bearish divergence with its Demand Power measure, and also its 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, suggesting a top is approaching. There is also a growing Bearish divergence between the Secondary Trend Indicator and the S&P 500 that warns of developing trouble. Bearish divergences also appear in the NASDAQ 100 Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator and the NDX 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal August 11th. It fell 8 points Tuesday (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -2. It will have to decline below negative - 5 for a new Sell signal.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators generated a Neutral signal August 12th, 2021 and remain there Tuesday, August 17th, 2021. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Tuesday, July 20th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 17th, 2021, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on August 6th, 2021. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Demand Power fell 6 to 412 Tuesday, while Supply Pressure rose 9 to 419, telling us Tuesday's Blue Chip decline was strong. This DP/SP Indicator moved to a NeutralSignal August 17th.
Today's Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks fell weakly Tuesday. These markets are not that far from a bottom that leads to a strong upside move.
Gold started a Bullish Cup and Handle pattern in 2011. The Cup portion completed a year ago, and since then Gold has been declining inside the handle portion of the pattern, which is the concluding piece. We got new Sell signals in our HUI key trend-finder indicators Friday, August 6th, and Gold has followed these signals to the downside to finish the "handle" portion of this Bullish pattern. Once it breaks out of this "handle's" decline, a powerful rally will commence.
Once the "handle" bottoms, in the midst of all the drama that is coming, Gold should be headed sharply higher over the coming months and years. It could reach 3,000 as it rises, perhaps quite a bit higher than that over time, with corrective declines interspersed along the way.
Silver is finishing a sideways pattern that should lead to a strong rising trend. It should track Gold. Mining stocks are bottoming, and there is a Bullish divergence between the HUI and our HUI 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, so they also should track Gold down, then higher. Oil remains inside a long-term rising trend.
The HUI is seeing a Bullish Divergence between prices and its 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, suggesting that Mining stocks, and likely Metals, are soon going to head higher, starting a new rising trend. The HUI weekly Full Stochastics are deep oversold, and in past times that this has occurred, the HUI started a 50 point rally within a short period of time from this occurrence.
The HUI key trend-finder indicator triggered a Sell signal August 6th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal August 6th, 2021, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell on August 6th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered a Sell signal August 6th. On Tuesday, August 17th, Demand Power fell 4 to 363 while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 393, telling us Tuesday's HUI decline was mild.
DJIA/SPY PPI Fell 5 to + 34.26, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 75.33 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 70.56 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 70.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 53.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 43.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 8 to Negative - 2, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 6 to 412, Supply Pressure Up 9 to 419 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator fell to negative - 106.47
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1455.08
Plunge Protection Team Indicator - 2.66, an "OFF" signal
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator - 161.2 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 87 New Lows 100
Today's Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators moved to a Neutral signal Tuesday, August 17th, 2021, and remain there August 17th, 2022. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on August 17th, 2021, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell on August 17th, and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 21st, 2021. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Sell signal Tuesday, August 17th and remains there August 17th. On Tuesday, August 17th, Demand Power was Fell 5 to 429, while Supply Pressure Rose 7 to 442, telling us Tuesday's decline was moderate to strong.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal July 28th, 2021, and needs to fall below negative - 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to negative -2.2 on Tuesday, August 17th.
NDX PPI Fell 5 to 318.66, On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.16 Slow 57.97 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 41.77 Slow 52.41 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 2.2 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 5 to 429, Supply Pressure Rose 7 to 442 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 3 to 194.12, on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator - 202.1, On a Sell
McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report and this Executive Summary from that report is an educational service providing a body of technical analysis that measures the possibility and probability of future changes in mass psychology (swings from pessimism to optimism and back) which identifies possible new trends in major markets within various time frames, from very short term (daily) through very long term (years and decades). The tools we use are based upon price patterns, indicators and other proprietary measures that we have identified as correlative to future market trends. While an investor or trader could come up with ideas and strategies from the information published in our reports, at no time should a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended by this publication or our other services. We are not offering investing advice, but are only offering some (but not all) of the information that can be used in the investment decision making process with your own personal financial adviser. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by Robert D. McHugh's Market Forecasting and Trading Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your adviser to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions. Information contained herein is believed to be reliable, but the publisher cannot be held liable for errors or omissions. No specific advice can be construed from the following. The reader is solely responsible for all actions taken. Please refer also to our disclaimer in the back of the newsletter from which this Executive Summary is derived. Copyright c 2021 Robert McHugh |
