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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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ajtj99

towerdog

To: ajtj99 who wrote (33858)	8/18/2021 9:53:48 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations of 97601

Strictly speaking, sunk cost fallacy means that you think because you have spent money on something, somehow it is now worth more than the market is telling you it is. As a trader, one of the ways to guard against this is to look at the chart and ask yourself if you did not have any positions in it, would you buy it at this stage? Another method is to flip the chart upside down (or left side right) and analyze it. In the case of military, you sometimes see in movies how the sunk cost fallacy is pointed out by an opponent: "We control the high ground. Your troops are tired and out of supplies. Your are disconnected from your command...what is your military assessment of this situation?" But what I was telling you is different. The politicians in charge (and some times the military commanders) don't think that the war is more winnable because they have sacrificed so much for it. They are simply ashamed to face the consequences of the withdrawal. They don't have the guts (or the wherewithal) to tell their troops and their people that it was all for nothing. In the case of Japan for example, they were under no illusion that they had lost the war. They just wanted an honorable surrender. How do you get to have an "honorable surrender?" Only when you win the respect of your opponents and your people as having fought as bravely as anyone could have expected you to. The other ending is when the pain is just too much and everybody is so fed up with the losses that nobody is going to blame you for leaving. They are just happy that they are out. Vietnam ended that way. That was the point of Kerry's speech about how do you tell someone they should be the last person to die in the war?

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