In absence of real study data, So it comes down to simulation about mask wearing and spread...
nature.com
Here we use realistic simulations rooted in experimentally measured parameters of SARS-CoV-2 spread, contagion mode and mortality, to evaluate two available NPIs that reduce the spread of a respiratory infection, such as COVID-19. In our simulation, we assumed proper use of FDA-approved surgical face masks, as well as widely available cloth masks (flannel). We showed that a high degree of compliance in the use of masks, regardless of whether the wearer displays symptoms, slows the spread of infection. Face masks substantially reduce the transmission of respiratory droplets and aerosols containing viral particles 9, 10, 11. Increasing the fraction of the population wearing face masks reduces the number of new infected individuals per day and flattened the curve of total individuals infected (Figs. 2A, 4A). These two effects should reduce mortality and morbidity, alleviate the current stress on healthcare systems, and enable a more effective management of severe cases. However, solely wearing masks cannot entirely prevent an outbreak from occurring. It cannot by itself extinguish the virus, since as long as a small fraction of the population is non-compliant, the virus can persist in the population. Our results show that combining proper use of masks with SD indisputably decreases the number of new infected individuals per day (Fig. 2). In addition, our model was demonstrated to be scalable and able to describe realistic situations such as interactions between 5000 agents (see Supplementary Fig. SM2). |
