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Pastimes : All Things Weather and Mother Nature

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To: Don Green who wrote (100)	8/27/2021 9:14:37 AM
From: Don Green	of 942

Severe weather set-up plugging away toward Michigan over next few days We know we have a couple of weather factors that can create severe thunderstorms- hot temperatures and high humidity. Eventually storm disturbances coming out of the northern Plains could bring Michigan a few rounds of severe storms. Here is the rainfall forecast in six hour increments through 2 a.m. Monday, when the stormy pattern should be over. Rainfall forecast every six hours to 2 a.m. Monday. The life cycle of these clumps of storms is about 18 hours and crossing about 500 miles. The first complex of storms in this next stormy phase is happening now across Iowa. The severe part of the first complex probably won’t hold together to get to Michigan. But you can see from the forecast above that each day brings a clump of thunderstorms closer to tracking right over Michigan. In fact, the first area to get severe storms will be the Upper Peninsula and far northern Lower Michigan. The severe storms could happen in the north Friday night and Saturday. Southern Lower Michigan could get in on severe storms Saturday night, or more likely Sunday afternoon and evening. Here’s the forecast for rainfall between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. Sunday. Rain forecast at 8 p.m. Sunday. The arc shaped area of rain signifies a decent strength cold front. A cold front on a hot, humid day with a timing of coming through in the evening has a strong potential for severe thunderstorms. We are going to have to give you the severe weather forecast one day at a time. We will only have 12 hours in advance for knowing where the thunderstorm complex with start on a given day. For Friday morning to Saturday morning, the severe storm complexes are still expected to be west of Michigan. Severe weather forecast for 8 a.m. Friday to 8 a.m. Saturday. A severe storm forecast in this situation just relies on pattern recognition, and the fact that a strong cold front just after the heat of the day usually sets off severe storms. So you will probably see updates from me this weekend as severe storms approach. Plan on the second half of Sunday likely being the stormiest time of the weekend for southern Lower Michigan.

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