Hurricane Ida could be close to Cat 4, dump up to 20 inches of rain in southeast Louisiana
BY CARLIE KOLLATH WELLS | STAFF WRITER AUG 27, 2021
Tropical Storm Ida could be close to Category 4 hurricane strength when it makes landfall Sunday on Louisiana's coast, hurricane forecasters said Friday morning.
The storm is strengthening on its way toward the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become a hurricane later Friday.
Hurricane watches have been issued for Louisiana, including metro New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Lafayette.
Sunday is the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
Watch: Is one side of a hurricane worse than another? Yes. Here's why.
In their latest update, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center increased their estimate for how strong Ida could be at landfall.
The storm could have winds of 120 mph just before landfall, which would make it a strong Category 3 hurricane. Category 4 hurricanes have winds of at least 130 mph.
Ida also is expected to dump up to 20 inches of rain over southeast Louisiana through Monday morning, forecasters said. Ida also could bring dangerous storm surge, strong winds and life-threatening rip tides to southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi Alabama.
Here's what we know about the storm as of 10 a.m. Friday.
Where is Tropical Storm Ida?
Tropical Storm Ida is seen on satellite in the Caribbean as of 10 a.m. Aug. 27, 2021. (.
image via NOAA
As of 10 a.m., Tropical Storm Ida was about 75 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth and about 200 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. It's moving northwest at 15 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Ida strengthened Friday morning and now has winds of 65 mph, according to data from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward 90 miles from the center.
On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later Friday and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico late Friday and Saturday.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, forecasters said, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane, which is a Category 3 storm or stronger, when it approaches the Gulf Coast.
Watches and warnings in effect
Watches and warnings have been issued related to Tropical Storm Ida. They include the Louisiana coastline and metro New Orleans. The hurricane watch will likely be upgraded to a warning later Friday, forecasters said.
A watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours. A warning means hurricane conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida borderVermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Mobile BayA hurricane watch is in effect for:
Cameron, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama borderLake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and metropolitan New OrleansThe following parishes are included: Ascension, Assumption, Orleans, Livingston, Jefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, Terrebonne, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. James, St. John The Baptist.A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
Little Cayman and Cayman BracCuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, HavanaA tropical storm watch is in effect for:
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.20 inches of rain possible
graphic via National Weather Service in Slidell
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The rain from Ida is likely to start Sunday, forecasters with the National Weather Service in Slidell said.
Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches are likely, but some areas in southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and Alabama could get 20 inches, they said.
The heavy rainfall is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream and riverine flooding, forecasters said.
Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi.
Storm surge
image via National Hurricane Center
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline, forecasters said.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Miss., including Lake Borgne: 7-11 feetRockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to Morgan City, Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay: 4-7 feetOcean Springs to MS/AL border: 4-7 feetMS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay: 3-5 feetLake Pontchartrain: 4-6 feetLake Maurepas: 3-5 feetSabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge: 2-4 feetWind could start Saturday night
image via National Hurricane Center
Ida is expected to deliver a "wide swath of life-threatening, damaging winds" across portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, forecasters said.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Louisiana and Mississippi late Saturday night or Sunday.
Expect widespread power outages, tree damage and structural damage across southeastern Louisiana, forecasters said.
Life-threatening rip currentsSwells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba on Friday.
Swells will begin reaching portions of the Gulf Coast on Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, forecasters said.
Read the full 10 a.m. advisory. The National Hurricane Center will release its next update at 1 p.m.
Storm categories
A hurricane evacuation route sign is seen along Airline Drive in Metairie on Wednesday, August 4, 2021. (Photo by Brett Duke, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune | The New Orleans Advocate)
STAFF PHOTO BY BRETT DUKE
The categories, in order of increasing strength, are tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane (categories 1 through 5).
On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, the wind categories are:
Tropical storm: 39 to 73 mph
Category 1 hurricane: 74 to 95 mph
Category 2 hurricane: 96 to 110 mph
Category 3 hurricane (major hurricane): 111 to 129 mph
Category 4 hurricane: 130-156 mph
Category 5 hurricane: 157 mph and higher |
