I posted the following five-year scenarios on the AMD, ArMH, INTC, NVDA board:
Vattila,
I don’t have five scenarios so let me just give you three. Note that I am an unabashed NVIDIA bull.
Pessimistic: Intel’s Alchemist GPU takes market share from NVIDIA and competing AI chip technologies such as Cerebras and Google’s TPU take market share, their Grace CPU falters and the ARM deal falls through. NVIDIA will continue to grow through at a lower pace, say 20%. Their multiple contracts to say a forward P/E of 30, giving them a share price of $300 in five years, a CAGR of 8.4% from current price of about $200.
Expected: NVIDIA continues to hit on all cylinders in gaming GPUs with DLSS and in data centers and autonomous driving and supercomputers AI and the Grace CPU is a success, but the ARM deal falls through. NVIDIA continues to grow at the historical CAGR of 38% and their multiple remains at a forward P/E of 50, reaching a share price of $1,000 in five years, a CAGR of 38%.
Optimistic: NVIDIA excels in gaming GPUs with DLSs, taking more market share from AMD and Intel’s Alchemist GPU is a flop, data centers and autonomous vehicles and supercomputers AI thrive, the Grace CPU is a resounding success and the ARM deal succeeds, clearly establishing NVIDIA as the world’s AI chip leader. NVIDIA grows at a breakneck CAGR of 50% and their multiple expands to a forward P/E of 60, reaching a share price of $1,800, a CAGR of 55%.
JMHO,
Frank
P.S., For more on why I’m so bullish on NVIDIA see the Introduction header to the NVIDIA message board which I’ve substantially expanded and updated:
Subject 24955
This was prompted by the following recent bullish article.
Message 33463388
Note my exponential growth analysis in support:
Message 33463502
Specifically to your question, the chip shortage guarantees chip sales will be strong for several quarters as NVIDIA sells all they can make. The game changer is AI, however, which will guarantee extraordinary growth for several years. |
