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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks

NN 11.97

+5.3%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Andrew who wrote (3076)	2/5/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: Don Beals	Read Replies (2) of 18016

Andrew I took your ATM estimates and projected them into the future. The trend in ATM revenues is remarkably liner so I did a linear regression (R^2=.987) and extrapolated it into the future. I also regressed the ATM as % of total revenues (R^2=.9). I did not attempt to estimate total revenue since it is all over the map. It is pretty clear that Newbridge is in a product transition phase and if the past is indicative of the future, the future looks promising. If TDM is drying up does this signal a faster than expected industry transition to ATM? Newbridge Quarter Total$M ATM $M %ATM of total ($M) Q499 13 316.07e 71.15e Q399 12 294.46e 67 Q299 11 272.85e 62.85e Q199 10 251.24e 58.7e Q498 9 229.63e 54.568e Q398 8 360e 200e 50.4 Q298 7 432 195 45.1 Q198 6 435 170 39.1 Q497 5 441 142 32.2 Q397 4 333 113 33.9 Q297 3 315 105 33.3 Q197 2 286 77 26.9 Q496 1 272 57 20.95

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