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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (36129)10/6/2021 11:55:15 AM
From: Jacob Snyder4 Recommendations

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ajtj99
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edward miller
Lee Lichterman III

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Covid predictions:

1. The daily case count will continue to decline. Also hospitalizations and deaths.

2. The slope of the decline is becoming less steep, for the US and globally. This indicates we will follow the UK pattern. My guess (and that is my degree of certainty): US cases plateau at 50k/d, the world at 300k/d.

3. The economic and social effects of covid are proportional to hospitalizations and deaths, not to case rates.

4. At those plateau levels, ICU beds will be available in rich nations, with a few exceptions (like Alaska).

5. Death rates will decline more than case rates, because of better treatment. US death rates will plateau at (very roughly) 500/d.

6. This is our new normal. People get used to anything, if it goes on long enough. We will find other things to worry about.

7. Vaccinations globally are steadily ring-fencing the direct damage covid does. Over time, viruses tend to get more infectious and less lethal.

8. New variants are possible, causing more (but lower) waves.

9. The indirect damage (secondary and tertiary effects) will reverberate for years. A re-assessment of just-in-time globalization. Even less trust in Authority. Increasing inequality, between nations, between classes. Increasing anger caused by inequality.
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