Bear! Message Board - Msg: 33520129

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear!

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From: Harshu Vyas	10/7/2021 9:40:31 AM
	1 Recommendation of 266

A VERY Brief Update "Energy inflation generally lags behind general inflation." An incredibly intelligent investor/ short seller sent me a report with this gem in it. Look at what is going on now. It's almost like the 06 energy crisis mixed with 70's inflation. The problem is since the GFC ZIRP has been used. The so-called miraculousness from the gov't and Fed has not worked. The GFC problem was never really fixed. The crash was due- Covid prevented it...but this time it's only going to get worse. Have a look at the debt ceiling problem the US treasury are facing. Sovereign default? I mentioned it before- a ever-increasing possibility. I really want to bet against the dollar- Chinese Yuan will CERTAINLY come out better even after their decade long "fake" growth. The Fed want to raise rates...mhm not sure that will be reality. Bannkruptcies since the GFC have been few...have businesses really become more solid? If anything, I would argue the contrary...Perhaps too much risk has been taken in the last few years. Have a read about China - Evergrande was the beginning. With power shortages, it is likely there will be an economic crisis that we have never seen before. As for contagion.... the Chinese banks should be worried...hell, all corporations in China should be worried. Gov't taken on too much debt. Corporations the same. When rates rise, these bonds will become worth less (was that space intentional?). Housing prices have increased massively- something to watch into the future. Supply chains are as good as hopeless. Politicians refuse to take any blame nor do businesses - they are both waiting for eachother to make a move. Both stubborn. The problem is consumers can't consume and if the goods can't be supplied the price goes upwards very quickly. Only truly bullish on oil and (slghtly) gold. Stock market rebounded pretty quick after 08- this time it will be much longer (my bet is a decade)- A true bear market. Speculative stocks like TSLA will go down partly due to oil and because its valued by future prospects- rates rising will help correct its current price. SPAC's, crypto, NFT are stupid atm. Just leave them alone. As for FB, I have no idea. Are they too big? Don't hesitate to email me: harshu.vyas@outlook.com Questions?

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