| | | WTIC: stays within 15% of the 50dma. During upturns, it rides the upper edge of that range. During downturns, it gets at least briefly near the lower edge. From the August low to today, oil has moved from the bottom to the top of its range. Will the upturn stall here? Maybe. But maybe it will just ride that upper line continuously, all the way to $110 oil. Breaking above the very-LT resistance line at $75 is very bullish.
From the November 2020 low to the March 2021 high, oil more than doubled in price. The strong uptrend was not over, till the 20dma failed. After the 20dma failed, oil went sideways for 6 months before the uptrend resumed. I expect that pattern to repeat.
So, I will hold all my E&Ps, till the 20dma fails. When that happens, I will sell in increments on any up-move, and buy at the 50dma. Fully in at 15% below the 50dma.
FA confirms TA, which makes me comfortable in this assessment. Prices have not reached the point of demand destruction. Supply cannot go up, regardless of price, until after capex increases. No sign of that happening yet. schrts.co |
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