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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 292.04+2.4%Dec 18 4:00 PM EST

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oldbeachlvr
From: Return to Sender10/12/2021 4:41:40 PM
2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 95610
 
Reasons why the market might be rolling over;

Rising Interest Rates
Inflation
Rising oil and gas prices
Stubbornly overly bullish investor sentiment
Rampant speculation in IPO's
Another Housing Bubble
P/E ratios that are higher than at almost any other time in history
Highest margin debt ever

And too many others to list!

Why this may be nothing more than a simple correction?

We have hardly corrected at all. I agree MU's chart looks awful but the SOX has not sold off all that much at all.



If the SOX rolls completely over and the entire market enters a bear market then we can start looking at MU as an early warning sign in the future. Right now it is a stock that is being treated as it always has been. That is a commodity chip supplier. Whether that treatment is fair, or not, is certainly worth debate but its price action is what it is for sure.

I know how to ascertain when we have formed a stock market bottom. I cannot tell you when the market has or is topping until it has been fully appreciated in the rear view mirror. I don't believe any of us can because I have tried and failed to call tops for years.

What we have right now could be nothing more than the old sell in May and go away until we get the October bottom. Maybe we won't bottom until March? I don't know but I do know real bottoms have extreme pessimism followed by a 9-1 upside day, or a couple 80% upside days, in close succession.

RtS
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