"an extended triple top...,...we are on the verge of a major bear market in U.S. equities" (Kaplan)
Gold Mining Outlook by Steven Jon Kaplan
Updated @ 5:25 p.m. EST, Thursday, February 5, 1998.
geocities.com
The volatility index, a measure of implied volatilities for U.S. stock index options which demonstrates complacency vs. fear in
the market, closed up 1.01 at 22.04 after hitting an intraday low of 20.74 on Wednesday, its lowest level since 20.73 on August
7, 1997 when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was touching its all-time high. The VIX has been below 25 since January 16,
indicating a lack of investor concern about a drop in the stock market. If a rise in the VIX is accompanied by continued
bearish key reversals, such as that seen Thursday in the S&P 500 Index, while the Dow plunges below 8000 as the Nasdaq
collapses, this would complete an extended triple top, a very bearish chart pattern. Recent weakness in the bond market
increases the possibility that we are on the verge of a major bear market in U.S. equities. |
