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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House)
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To: rupert1 who wrote (4074)2/5/1998 10:56:00 PM
From: Paul Fine  Read Replies (1) of 6980
 
Re House Interview: My take is alittle different. Seems to me there is alot of substance there. The mention that the street est. for this qtr has dropped from $.30 to $.28 would indicate that House got exactly what he wanted from the post-earnings conf. call and is reaffirming the message now.

It would seem reasonable to assume that what he told the reporter in the morning is what he is going to tell the analysts in the afternoon. With that kind of cautionary tone, what analyst is going to take a chance on upgrading est. for the current qtr until the company(or a survey of resellers) confirms that the product transitions are going just fine? Now, if/when the analysts feel reasonably comfortable that the downside risk to the $.28 is small, then maybe they go out to 4 qtr("very optimistic for 2nd half FY" = strong 4th qtr) and get on the upgrade bandwagon a month from now in advance of current qtr results.

I can live with the stock trading in the low $30's for another 4-6 weeks. It would look better technically, allowing the stock to consolidate and reducing the chance of an "overbought" sell-off later(as occurred in mid-Oct).

Naturally, all the above is the meanderings of a logical person trying to make sense of an illogical process. Onward and upward(or at least steady as she goes!).

Paul
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