RFF, this post could be very "off" given that I own a s*it load of QCOM and will be slaughtered tomorrow but your post is very relevant it seems to me. QCOM, almost uniquely among the tech stocks, had and has SEA, and particularly Korean, exposure. I have listened to their guidance cc today in detail. The polite summary is that their 2nd Quarter, in terms of Korean revenues, is gone. As Bill C. would say, "you listen to me", gone. I don't mean reduced a big amount; I mean orders cancelled, I mean customers who couldn't beg, borrow, or steal the financing to buy Q product. Understand that two weeks ago, the Q doubled sales and tripled earnings, that revenues have been growing 47% per year over the last three years. That two weeks ago, Samsung had been BEGGING the Q to ramp up ASIC production over prior estimates of demand a month before that.
Now, LSI, I hope, has nowhere near that exposure, but FWIW, there were a ton of analysts on the Q guidance call, and clearly the Q is not INTC, CSCO, MSFT, HP, etc. but there were some nasty vibrations in that crowd and the end result was: SEA is very huge, and a very long way from "going away". QCOM is no bellweather, but it's not some little guy either. My hunch is that the recent tech bounce will get a hit from this one and I am a long and not a short flamer and wish I was reporting something else and hope like hell I am dead wrong. Mike Doyle |
