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Technology Stocks : NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVDA 182.55+2.0%Nov 24 3:59 PM EST
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From: Frank Sully11/10/2021 12:18:45 AM
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Glenn Petersen

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Got some more insights from Jensen.

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Jensen's Response:

Long term weather prediction seems hard.

Long term climate prediction is more possible.

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Frank's Continuation:

Thanks, Jensen.

I’m not really familiar with Climate models. They may be more tractable mathematically than weather models.

Lorenz simplified a few fluid dynamics equations (called the Navier-Stokes equations) and ended up with a set of three nonlinear equations:




When he did computer simulation of the solutions to this PDE (using the ancient computers available in the early 1960’s) he discovered the Lorenz Attractor, which exhibited the Butterfly Effect.

It is possible that the solutions to Climate models do not exhibit this chaotic behavior. As you say, there is always uncertainty, but when there is Chaos present there is so much uncertainty that no prediction is possible due to “sensitive dependence on initial conditions” and exponential divergence of solution orbits in solution space.

Thanks for your response.
Frank Sullivan

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Jensen's Response:

Climate is the average weather.

We are seeking to know the likely hood of increase in extreme weather and to what degree. i.e., high confidence that there will be 3-times more days of ideal wildfire days in western U.S. in 2055 vs 2021.

Much different than sunny with a chance of drizzles on Wednesday afternoon.
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