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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16903)	2/6/1998 1:01:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) of 50167

Market direction- a macro picture- broad objectives where is market heading. If you look at this break above 1000 you may see that the possibility of this break to astonish every one wildest imagination is technically there- I will invite you back on the charts if you notice from August to Jan we had a band trading between 890 and 990 on SP- now we also had a single false break - as I have explained several times on this thread such a configuration is very volatile and dynamic on the side of break- if it would have broken below 890 on two closing basis my target on down side was 770- on the up also considering tight range 6 months trading as base my target on up is 1130 on SP- now this a very broad reading but I want the thread to be aware of upside potential of this move- like a break of 770 only stopped at 890 we can see this a big move up- technically this is possible- now where does one go short or start buying puts for that we need to watch on daily basis-once target is known we atleast will not be surprised- nowe one thing Iam sure this thing is going to take out 1130= when I don't know before that let me tell you my revised supports- I have moved the support up to 950 instead of 900 level the new band of trading in next few weeks will be 1045 and 950- the break of 950 may be called a 'false break like the ione we had on 28th Oct= this kind of brealk on bad news can even take market to 900-890 level. Definitely we have a new higher set of suppoorts and new breaks with higher supports is very bullish event for the markets new highs are rarely broken but once in place not easily discounted, we need to watch out for event - a change of higher order like Yelstin sending troops to ME- if you go back to my yearly report you will see Russian politics taking top event related sell offs- one cannot discount it and in such a case bull leg can even set back to 850 previous inter move low of the last 770-990 move. I see SOX formation as good like INTC to take out 90 and TXN 60 on closing basis if this new move has to take SOX near to previous highs- I will be looking at 320 as first objective last night late sell off weas triggered by INTC profit taking- someone who boarded the run at 70 must have exited at 90- we need to see this consoildation phase stuck above 85 and 55 on INTC and TXN below that we go back to 280- on higher levels I see some visibility of 380 but too remote however this will keep me away from shorting SOX only- if we break 320 the run can be dramatic up but a break of 300 is not very good -associated with 1000 on SP this will taske us to 980 and 280 on SOX- SOX made a perfect double bottom on this move and test of lows at 243 I think it looks to test 320 if INTC and TXN are game- LSI LRCX AMAT KLIC KLAC all need to do their little part. I see SOX blast off phase at 340- it may if 320 is taken out will attempt 340- SOX will hit possibly 380 and retreat to 340 and take out 400 high by 1999 Jan. This is in next 12months entirely possible. Composite also gives me a good reason to see a possibilty of higher test- I think 1748 the old high test is on cards we may see with end of earning season new revisions upward as I have always said making my bulllish case that Dec earning downward revisions were draconian- so if composite hits old highs we may have DOW and SP hitting new levels within 1130 at the upper end- my levels are not for immediate trading but I see no bull case possible without defining my tops and bottoms. BKX is achieving my target of 754 I will assume the strength to continue as Markets in ASEA strenghten- So for me I will watch SOX BKX Composite for a direction of SPA- below 280 720 1640- take care we may see a extended consolidation to 950 area. These objectives are for threaders to know where we are heading broad objectives so that one is not in dark.

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