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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 47.14-6.1%3:59 PM EST
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To: Steven Angelil who wrote (3848)10/8/1996 4:49:00 AM
From: Jimmy Parks   of 186894
 
Although you may not have shorted at the peak, I think what you did was fine. In the recent issue of Barron's, Intel was in the top ten list of insider selling. Intel has gotten ahead of itself at this time. The unexpectedly good quarter it has forecasted is the result of the pricing strategy they recently adopted. However, the mainstream transition from the Pentium to the Pentium Pro hasn't occurred. This is reminescent of the period in which the 486/DX4 100 had moved to the desktop standard and the Pentium 60/66 was considered the Pentium standard. IMHO the motherboard manufacturers still haven't caught up to the PPRO's capabilities. We'll see significant Motherboard changes in the next 9 months that will cause the Pentium Pro to be the mainstream standard instead of the Pentium 166 or 200 mhz. We'll also see releases of higher speed PPro's that will leave current Pentium Pro owners with speed envy.

IMO Intel should drop to below $80 a share by 12/31/96. People will want to take profits before that time. The extremely bullish sentiment for Intel is an indication that it is topping out. Cyrix recently dropped prices on their Pentium clones 10/01/96. Since Intel said they wouldn't drop prices for the rest of the year, they're giving Cyrix breathing room to make some oem deals for the Christmas season. By the time everyone figures out that the 4th quarter won't have the unexpectedly good results of the 3rd quarter, the stock will have dropped $40.

IMO Intel will rise to above $120 by next summer, so don't be lulled into leaving short positions open!
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