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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!
LGND 199.20+0.1%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Arthur Radley who wrote (14335)2/6/1998 9:34:00 AM
From: Henry Niman  Read Replies (1) of 32384
 
TD, LGND certainly did beat the estimates. The Zach's report I saw (1/31/97) actually shows a mean estimate of a $0.27 loss for 4Q '97, so the actual loss of $0.09 was a marked improvement (as was the $1.06 loss for the year compared to the $1.21 consensus).

I usually don't put much weight on the numbers, because they can be dramatically affected by deals such as the $200 million one with LLY. Similarly, LGND could be signing a leptin deal soon as well as licensing out the GLYC technology that was being developed by Sankyo.

The direction certainly seems clear however. IR expects more analysts to put out new numbers soon, and they are expected to be positive revisions similar to the 12/31/97 numbers of Bear Stearns. At the current low levels, I would also expect the initiation of coverage by some major houses.

LGND's bid did hit 11 1/2 for a short time before the open, but it fell back to 11 3/16. The institutions should figure things out sooner or later and they usually want to get in ahead of the numbers or announcements (and LGND projects stellar Phase II clinicals to be announced in 2Q).

P.S. I guess some do read the reports. LGND's bid is up to 11 3/4, its ask is 11 7/8. (LGNDW's bid has moved to 6)
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