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Non-Tech : Amati investors

AMTX 1.595

-0.3%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tera Bit who wrote (4365)	10/8/1996 8:20:00 AM
From:	of 31386

I am not saying that Aware/Digi is a buy; only that if you use Techie's logic, her logic is pointing to them over Amati. I find that for me Techie's logic hurts me when I am trading; trading wise, she is often calling the wrong call for me. So I ignore the Aware/DIGI logical outcome. I think that Aware is ok short-term for trading at prices below $15. Amati will have the momentum. I DO believe that Amati is moving because of the Alcatel deal and it is because of people posting on the internet saying that DMT is it and internet people immediately saying; AMTX. AMTX is like IOMG; it as Techie use to say does not trade on fundamentals. That is why I say "not on its merits". AMTX based on a fundamentals based projected potential basis is often considerably ahead of itself and that is why it gets its clock cleaned on downturns in the overall market more than other companies. DMT is where it is at. Amati is helped by this. Amati is still not named most ADSL trials and this should be a concern. It makes Amati considerably more risky at this point and I don't believe that it is a guaranteed win. It is a likely win with huge risk. Just as Westell can get clobbered; so exists the downside in AMTX. I just will not buy at high levels due to this. Westell is possibly the killer buy if it falls back to $24 and the reason is that they may have lost one big contract but have many more to win. Amati is a US niche player and a possible international player. I am not that impressed with the management. I would have been working to team up with someone bigger by now and this may be their fatal mistake. I am talking about teaming up with an end to end system integrator. MOT isn't offer this; right? The RBOCs want price. That is the competitive requirement. Cable modems are at the $35 range. Bell Atlantic is charging Fairfax, VA ADSL trial participants $40 for ADSL. That is likely the price point for commercial deployment that is being evaluated. As for Aware; they are having problems like Amati getting attention. Aware is cable in my mind. I could be wrong, but that is how I manage thinking about them. Wavelet technology has merits in cable. ANSI standards prevail. I see the proof that AMTX is just trading on internet attention because other DMT companies are moving down. The near-term gain in AMTX is pure internet hype momentum. It will not last and AMTX needs something to show in the way of contracts. This is a broken record, but for less money invested NUKO has more potential and far less risk. There is little competition and little question about their direct participation in the broadband evolutionary unfoldment. Why play a stock that might participate when there is one that will certainly participate. Participation means direct explosive growth from the delivery of the new technology. I like ADI better than Aware by the way as a long term investment. If DMT wins big, ADI has a lot of chips to sell I would think. It is all risk vs. reward. I feel less risk tolerant after June/July. Mark Taylor uses BBN as an ISP. I don't think CA used that provider if I recall.

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