Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk

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From: kapex	11/29/2021 3:26:15 PM
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Gold Really interesting action in gold here. We did get the down from the recent high as the inside and outside days combined with the COT's showing the commercials getting even Shorter and the technical's getting a little overbought. But sentiment seemed to be getting bullish as well. Gold and silver are definitely going to have their day..........Days....but it appears it needs to wallow in the lower regions so.... the always on the right side of the market.... commercials can cover their shorts. You can see from this weekly chart of gold with the COT's as short as they are now.....is never the beginning of a sustained move. The action in March of this year was a blip up in the cot's.... (When I mention the COT's I am Only referring to the green line or the Commercials).... i.e. they covered a bit of their shorts at that low point and sold all the way up. Here we are again after seeing the same kind of action as it declined into the Oct low. They covered a little and they were right. Futures Gold Chart Weekly (finviz.com) Controlled market?? Of Course!!! So we work within the things we have that speak to US. Sentiment......Wave Structure....COT's........Tech. indicators. Ignore them at your peril. Again......I try not to comment all the time as I am not looking for attention or anything. I just want to help. When I see something....I will speak up. If it works out the way I see it..... I usually don't comment. If it doesn't I may offer what I think is or has happened and look at scenario 2 or 3. LOL So why am I speaking up Now? Because this market looks muddy! You can see the wave structure is mess. I could give you Twelve different counts based on what it looks like. LOLOL It's certainly corrective! But is it correcting an up move or a down move? Well........the nice thing about NOT tying yourself to one thing like the wave structure....or COT's or even sentiment (IMVHO....sentiment is the one thing you can hang your hat on more than Anything else.....but it is a much longer term thing.) Changes in sentiment.... takes quite a while to develop and people are Not that fickle that they let their emotions go from euphoric to despondent in a couple months. But it does happen. I consider myself to be a contrarian and I just watch the emotions. AGAIN.....as Don said. Take a monthly and weekly chart and look at is like it's a daily and hourly chart. What you ...WANT... to take place has absolutely No bearing on what WILL take place. If your approach to looking at things from the point of what you want......you're using your emotions. The wave structure can get like this a lot and that's just the way it is. So Elliott can be frustrating and if your between waves of emotion.....that's kind of out too. So here we are with the COT's and Tech Ind. telling us.... not much. Inside outside days tells us when a big move is coming. But Nothing to really hang your hat on. That's not to say that surprise moves don't come from times like this. A couple weeks ago the in and out days came bunched and when I looked at a couple other things (Like the COT's) and tech macd and rsi......it seemed like it would be down. Why you may ask. I mentioned the cot's at the time and overbought. But a big move is not going to come with the cot's that short. Just look at the chart link above. They almost got long in the middle of 2018 and look what happened. Go back and look at them being this short and see what the market looks like while that condition existed! Not too good. You could make a case that everything since the top in mid 2020 has been as follows via Elliott. that straight move down to the low as an A... Then a straight move up for an a and a 3 wave move down for a b....and a 3 wave up move for a c or the B wave up......which is a 3-3-3....typical of B waves. This could be the start of a nasty C wave down. This 1-2-3-4 we just had from the recent high could be about over......or just the start of 5 waves down and this was just (still) i Who Noze? Things I would want to see are the cot's change in a dramatic way. This stuff takes time though. Other than that......I have nothing else I could add.

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